基于恢复力理论的生物能源发展模式与实现机制研究

China has set bioenergy industry to be a strategic one. In a social-ecological complex system, the development of bioenergy is currently constrained by its negative impacts on ecosystem, policy ineffectiveness and ill-matching with current institutions, among others. In particular, the existing management instituion for social-ecological system is not suitable for the development of bioenegy. Based on resilience theory, the project aims to study the functional mechanism, by which the development of bioenergy affects the social-ecological system, through resilience assessment and simulation of system dynamics, and to estimate the economic value of resilience as a natural capital using a discrete choice model. Moreover, the stakeholder's behaviors will be studies using game models so as to provide information for policy making, followed by a dynamic economic model used to assess the long-run impacts of bioenergy production coupled with ecosystem services on human well-being and social-ecological system's resilience. Furthermore, institutional analysis and mechanism design will be carried out in the framework of institutional analysis and development. The project is proposed to generate a model for bioenergy development, which will provide new theory and approach for the sustainable management of bioenergy, as well as to provide information and reference for making policies to promote the development of bioenergy industry.

我国已经将生物能源产业确定为战略性产业。由于发展生物能源的社会-生态系统是个复杂的系统，生物能源的发展目前还受到生产的不可持续、政策有效性不足、与现行制度的不匹配性等因素的制约，现行的社会-生态系统管理制度也不适合于生物能源的发展。针对这些问题，本课题将基于恢复力理论，通过恢复力评估法和系统动力学模拟研究发展生物能源影响社会-生态系统的作用机理；将恢复力评估与离散选择模型相结合探索评估恢复力经济价值的方法；通过博弈模型研究如何将利益相关者的决策行为纳入政策决策；通过动态经济优化模型分析耦合生态服务的生物能源利用对长期社会福利和生态系统恢复力的影响；利用制度分析与发展框架对生物能源的发展进行制度分析与机制设计。本研究将提出一个新的生物能源发展模式，为促进生物能源的可持续发展提供新的理论与方法; 同时也将为促进我国的生物能源发展提供决策依据。

本项目在恢复力理论的基础上，通过恢复力评估法和系统动力学模拟研究发展生物能源影响社会-生态系统的作用机理；将恢复力评估与离散选择模型相结合探索评估恢复力经济价值的方法；通过博弈模型研究如何将利益相关者的决策行为纳入政策决策；通过动态经济优化模型分析耦合生态服务的生物能源利用对长期社会福利和生态系统恢复力的影响；利用制度分析与发展框架对生物能源的发展进行制度分析与机制设计。项目进展基本按照计划方案执行。截止目前，课题组共发表了4篇文章，其中在SCI/SSCI期刊上发表2篇，在相关专著上发表2篇，目前在杂志社审稿中文章2篇；负责人参加国内外学术会议10次，邀请国外专家进行学术交流1人次。在人才培养方面，项目负责人被评为云南省中青年学术技术带头人；1人被评为云南省中青年学术技术带头人后备人才，1人晋升为副研究员，1名博士生顺利通过论文答辩，3名硕士生顺利通过论文答辩。