台风对橡胶产量的影响机理及风险评估模型研究

Typhoons are considered as the primary disaster causing the rubber production deductions from rubber trees in China. It is a key scientific question for the meteorological service department to carry out damage and loss assessments as well as risk assessments of rubber production. With the rubber forests damaged by the Typhoon “Rammasun” , “Kujira” and the typhoon happened during the study period as the main research object, our study investigated the mechanisms of the effects of Typhoons disasters on rubber tree canopy structures and their associated environmental factors by measuring the broken percentage, the canopy structure, and the microclimate of the rubber trees of various ages in the Typhoon centers as well as in the marginal zones. This study illuminated the biological mechanisms by determining the photosynthetic characteristics of the damaged rubber trees, the physiological parameters of the protective enzyme liveness and rubber producing. The annually growth model of the diameter of the rubber trees at breast height as a function of the height of the trees was constructed by stem analysis method, which also determines the relationship between the distribution ratio as well as the production of the dry rubber and meteorological conditions, and biomass. The massive rubber forecast LAI were acquired by the remote sensing information, and were used to model the rubber biomass, and were further used to establish the damage and loss model of rubber production. On this basis, we aim to optimize the comprehensive risk evaluation system, to construct the risk evaluation models, and to try to implement the dynamic risk evaluations of the rubber forests damages caused by typhoon disasters.

台风是影响中国橡胶产量最主要的灾害之一，气象业务部门对橡胶产量灾损评估和风险评价是亟需解决的关键科学问题。以台风“威马逊”、“鲸鱼”以及研究期内台风危害的橡胶林为主体研究对象，本项目拟通过测定台风影响中心和边缘区不同林龄的胶树折断率、冠层结构、林内小气候等，厘清台风灾害对橡胶林分及其环境因子的影响机理。通过测定受灾橡胶树的叶片光合特性、保护酶活性以及乳胶排胶的生理参数，阐明台风灾害影响橡胶产胶过程的生物学机制；利用树干解析法构建橡胶树胸径和树高的连年生长模型，并确定干胶分配率和产量与气象条件、生物量之间的数量关系；再利用遥感信息提取大面积橡胶林叶面积指数，模拟橡胶生物量，进而建立橡胶产量灾损模型。在此基础上，完善橡胶林台风灾害风险综合评价指标体系，构建台风灾害的风险评估模型，以期实现橡胶台风灾害灾害的动态风险评估。

海南是我国天然橡胶的重要种植基地，在全球气候变暖背景下，登陆海南的台风年频数虽有微弱减少趋势，但登陆平均强度总体上有增强趋势，这将给海南省橡胶生产带来严重的不利影响。项目收集了近30年的台风路径及风雨实况数据、橡胶灾损数据、近10年的卫星遥感影像数据，建立了海南省台风灾害形成环境背景和台风灾害数据库，对主要台风灾害区的空间范围进行比较和分析。项目开展了为期3年的橡胶林小气候观测试验，结果可知台风影响改变了橡胶林内不同高度的气温、相对湿度分布，影响了橡胶林内的热量和水汽交换。在以往橡胶树台风灾害影响调查的基础上，项目设计了不同程度的机械损伤试验，从光合荧光及细胞抗逆性生理参数的角度分析了风力胁迫对胶树的生理生化影响。橡胶树冠层受到机械损伤胁迫后，叶片光合特性和叶绿素荧光特性均发生显著变化；叶片中MDA含量、抗氧化酶（SOD、POD、CAT）活性较未受胁迫的橡胶树叶片差异显著，19天后各处理无显著差异。受台风影响后，橡胶树胶乳产量显著下降，干胶含量(DRC)显著高于对照，排胶初速度下降，乳管堵塞指数上升，胶乳蔗糖含量下降，胶乳硫醇（R-SH）和无机磷（Pi）含量低。项目基于FY -3卫星数据，计算了海南岛橡胶每旬的NDVI，估算了海南岛天然橡胶产胶潜力，以艾云尼台风为例开展橡胶林影响前后的长势及产胶潜力监测，开展了橡胶林受台风影响的灾损风险评估。通过分析橡胶林林分特征与气象、产量的关系，构建了胸径、树高、冠幅面积和材积量的模拟模型，以及基于材积量相对增长量、年平均气温、热量指数、降水指数、日照指数和灾害指数的单株干胶产量预报模型，并进行了模型验证。根据海南天然橡胶主要气象灾害形成机制和确定的台风灾害风险评价指标，分别构建了危险性、脆弱性和暴露性评价模型，并利用加权综合评价法构建海南天然橡胶台风灾害风险评价模型，绘制了风险分布图。项目成果已部分在业务及生产指导中得到了应用，为海南天然橡胶产业发展提供了技术支撑。