基于在线双向拍卖的运输服务市场交易策略研究

This project studies systematically the trading strategies and their impacts in a transportation service market with double auction as the way of online transaction. First, in a single-lane transportation environment, we construct the experiment framework for the transportation service market where the traders visit the market according to a Poisson process and choose randomly the bid or ask prices, and a third-party auctioneer matches the supply and demand. By applying computer simulation method, for the irrational traders, we study the third-party auctioneer's optimal auction length, the expected trading volume and the parties' revenues under the "zero-intelligence unconstrained" trading strategy, and compare the optima auction lengths for the third-parties auctioneer, the traders, and the entire market. For the boundedly rational traders, we study the traders' decisions, revenues, and the macro market performance under the "zero-intelligence constrained" trading strategy, and compare these aspects with that under the "zero-intelligence unconstrained" strategy. We also consider the traders with different endowments and revenue incentives, and study their optimal revenue incentives and the endowment effects for the traders under the "k-ZI" strategy. Second, we study the impacts of learning abilities of the traders on the optimal auction length, the parties' revenues, and the market efficiency by applying the "zero-intelligence plus" strategy. Finally, we incorporate the supply-demand imbalance and investigate its impacts on the traders and the macro market performance by comparing the two cases with it and with supply-demand balance.

本项目以双向拍卖为在线交易实现方式，系统研究运输服务市场中的交易策略及其影响。首先，针对单线路运输环境，构建交易者泊松到达、随机报价和第三方拍卖商进行需求匹配的运输服务市场实验框架，应用计算机仿真方法，研究适用非理性交易者的无约束“零信息”交易策略下第三方拍卖商的最优拍卖周期、期望交易数量与参与者收益，比较对于第三方拍卖商、交易者和整个市场最优的拍卖周期；对于有限理性的交易者，研究约束“零信息”交易策略下参与者决策、收益与市场宏观表现，并对其与无约束“零信息”交易策略进行比较研究；在此基础上，考虑交易者具有不同的禀赋和收益动机，研究通用型“零信息”交易策略下交易者的最佳收益动机选择和禀赋效应。然后，通过应用增强型“零信息”交易策略，研究交易者学习能力对最优拍卖周期、参与者收益和市场效率的影响。最后，引入市场供需不平衡，通过与供需平衡的情形进行比较，考察其对交易者和市场宏观表现方面的影响。

项目背景与研究内容：本项目以在线双向拍卖为交易实现方式，考虑交易者非理性和理性、具有不同的禀赋和收益动机和是否具有学习能力等因素，对运输服务市场中的不同交易策略及其对市场的影响进行系统研究。..主要研究结果和科学意义：通过计算机仿真实验发现，在交易者不具学习能力的情况下，约束型“零信息”交易策略较采用无约束“零信息”交易策略的运输服务市场拍卖周期短、交易数量和单位时间期望收益更多、市场效率也更高。采用多阶段匹配策略进行运量分配的效率明显优于价格优先匹配策略。研究结果还表明，采用具有一定学习能力的GD交易策略可使市场资源配置效率得到提高，承运方和托运方双方的报价也能很快达到市场整体效益最大化的均衡点。相对不具学习能力的约束型“零信息”交易策略和增强型“零信息”交易策略，GD交易策略下承运方和托运方收益更高、剩余运量更少、空载率更低、市场效率也更高。在让步交易策略下，若交易者禀赋较好且具有较高的收益动机，较大的让步系数可使交易者收益增大；而当交易者禀赋较差且有较高的收益动机时，较小的让步系数则对交易者更有利。本项目的研究结果有助于运输服务市场中的交易者通过报价策略的选择来获得最大收益，同时也有助于降低运输服务市场的空载率、提高市场效率，充分利用资源以更好的满足市场需求。