气候变化条件下农户投保行为与风险管理研究

The negative impacts of climate disasters on agricultural production cannot be ignored. Farmers need more risk protection on agricultural production and stronger risk management ability to reduce the adverse effects of climate change. Agricultural Insurance (AI), an important risk management tool for farmers, is of great significance to protect agriculture and food security. However, the farmers face many challenges on whether they could adopt such a tool better in the future. Thus more unprecedented innovations in the AI products are needed by adopting the newest modern technologies, which helps to break through the bottleneck of the development and to reduce basis risk of index insurance. Using the data of farmers, arable land, whether and the AI contract terms, this research tries to establish and analyze the decision models of farmers' agricultural production and the AI purchasing behavior, after making systematic analyses on natural disaster in agricultural production, famers' risk management strategies, and the AI development and the subsidy level. Scenarios of farmers' response to different insurance products will simulated and impacts of the AI purchasing rate and subsidy will be compared with existed products. Prioritized products with less basis risk, better subsidies, and higher AI purchasing rate will be selected. Ultimately, policy implications will be raised to improve the AI subsidy efficiency, to expand agricultural insurance coverage, and to enhance farmers' climate change adaptive capacity and disaster risk management capacity. Results will not only play important practical significance in enhancing the risk protection and improving the AI market performance for those farmers under open economies, but also bring more agricultural insurance experience for the rest of the world.

气候灾害对农业生产的负面影响不容忽视。为降低气候变化产生的不利影响，需为农户提供更好的生产风险保障并增强其风险管理能力。农业保险作为农户风险管理的重要工具，对保障农业和粮食安全意义重大。然而未来农户能否用好农险工具面临诸多挑战，需要充分利用现代技术实现农险产品的突破性创新，解决发展瓶颈并降低指数保险的基础风险。本项目试图利用农户、土地、气象和农险条款等数据，在对农业生产灾害及风险管理措施、农险发展状况和补贴情况进行系统分析基础上，构建模型分析农户农业生产和农险投保行为，模拟不同产品对农户投保和政府补贴的影响，从中选择基础风险较小、补贴效果更佳、参保率较高的农险产品，最终提出有利于提高农险补贴效率、扩大农险覆盖面、增强农户气候变化适应和灾害风险管理能力的政策建议。研究对开放经济条件下改善农险保障程度、提升小农的风险管理能力具有重要实践意义，也对全球其他地区的农险实践具有启示作用。

农业保险作为农户风险管理的重要工具，对保障农业和粮食安全意义重大。然而农户能否用好农业保险这项工具面临诸多挑战，需要充分利用现代技术实现农险产品的突破性创新。依据研究计划，项目紧紧围绕气候变化条件下农户投保行为和风险管理开展一系列研究活动，重点对我国政策性农业保险发展态势、农户农业生产决策、农户农险投保行为、农险产品条款设计及收入指数保险研发、农业保险补贴政策创新等进行了深入研究。研究结果表明，宏观上，农业保险的风险保障作用明显，各地农业保险的发展模式、专业性农业保险公司的推动、政府的财政补贴等因素对我国农业保险的发展具有显著的促进作用。微观上，农户农业保险参保行为受多种因素影响，其中风险厌恶水平在农户购买保险决策中扮演重要角色，它不仅直接影响农户购买决策，还同其他因素产生交互作用影响农户购买决策；农户农险参保行为会改变其农业生产决策，显著抑制有机肥和农药的投入；同时农业指数保险还会对农户的养殖决策产生显著影响。未来看，指数保险因为具有信息透明度高、成本和费率低、转移巨灾风险潜力大等特点，是我国农业保险发展的一个重要方向；“以奖代补”同样适用于政策性农业保险补贴政策，该政策有利于提高经营激励效果、促进保险公司有效竞争，能更好地发挥补贴资金的激励作用和使用效果。针对研究结论并结合国内外经验，课题组在运用有效的政府干预手段和积极的产品创新，提升农业保险风险保障水平，增强农户对气候变化适应性的方面提出了相关政策建议，这将有利于提高农险补贴效率、扩大农险覆盖面和增强农户灾害风险管理能力。