基于语义TRIZ的新兴技术创新路径预测研究

Development of the emerging technologies and related industries has become a new economic growth point and solution to seek to shake off the shadow of the financial crisis. It is the key issue to focus the strategic core industry technologies, mine and forecast innovation paths of the emerging technologied for all countries around the world, large and medium-sized enterprises and research workers. Guided with TRIZ theory and based on methods of morphology analysis, data mining, future-oriented technology analyses, technology roadmapping, forecasting innovation paths, the project focus on the study of forecasting innovation paths of the emerging technologies, including morphology analysis based on text mining to find the technical difficulties and potential solutions, technology roadmapping based on semantic TRIZ theory to find the development trend of the technical difficulties and potential solutions, and forecasting innovation paths to position, and locate, evaluate and select the patential innovation paths, which to offer a reference for R&D priorities and paths selection of the emerging technologies.

新兴技术及其产业的发展已成为世界各国新的经济增长点和寻求迅速走出金融危机阴霾的解决方法，聚焦战略性新兴产业核心技术，挖掘和预测新兴技术创新路径等问题便成为世界各国政府、大中型企业和科研人员愈发关注的核心问题。本项目以TRIZ理论为指导，以形态分析法、数据挖掘、面向未来的技术分析、技术路线图、创新路径预测等理论方法为基础，通过有效挖掘新兴技术领域关键研究问题及其核心技术属性构建形态分析矩阵，探索基于语义TRIZ理论的技术路线图方法来开展新兴技术创新路径的预测研究，以求为新兴技术未来研发重点和路径选择提供参考借鉴。

新兴技术及其产业的发展已成为世界各国新的经济增长点和寻求迅速走出金融危机阴霾的解决方法，聚焦战略性新兴产业核心技术，挖掘和预测新兴技术创新路径等问题便成为世界各国政府、大中型企业和科研人员愈发关注的核心问题。本项目以形态分析法和文本挖掘技术为基础，探索了基于新兴技术领域关键研究问题及其核心技术属性的形态分析矩阵构建方法，并借鉴 TRIZ 理论中“问题–动作–解决方案”模型，构建了基于“对象（名词）‐动作（动词）‐解决方案（动宾短语或短句）”的“语义TRIZ”模型，研究构建了基于“语义 TRIZ”理论的新兴技术路线图研究方法体系。以染敏太阳能电池技术为案例对象，项目组开展了新兴技术创新路径预测探索研究，验证和完善了上述方法体系，培养博硕士研究生8人，发表学术论文29篇，其中SCI/SSCI检索13篇。本项目所建立的研发方法体系有助于为新兴技术未来研发重点和路径选择提供参考借鉴。