基于地表能量平衡的地震热异常多参数识别及其关联性研究

As one of potential ways of short-impending prediction, the phenomenon of pre-earthquake thermal anomalies has been investigated widely in the worldwide by using satellite remote sensing. Recently, besides surface temperature, multi-parameters anomalies related to surface energy balance such as outgoing long wave radiation, surface latent heat flux and soil heat flux have been found. However, the questions of low reliability and unclear mechanisms are still not solved well. In this project, we aim to conduct multi-parameters recognizing and correlation analyzing of pre-earthquake thermal anomalies with representative earthquake sequences based on surface energy balance. The research contents include, 1) recognition and feature extraction of multi-parameters pre-earthquake thermal anomalies by using multiple assimilation data and satellite remote sensing data; 2) statistical analysis of the correlation between multi-parameters anomalies based their time, space and notability characteristics library; 3) experiment of groundwater effect on surface energy balance to simulate the correlation between multi-parameters anomalies . The results are expected to provide key parameters for the earthquake anomaly diagnosis in specific regions and to provide experiment basis for the understanding of pre-earthquake thermal anomalies mechanisms.

利用卫星遥感开展震前热异常研究已引起国际学术界的广泛关注，被认为是实现地震短临预警的潜在途径。近年，地震热异常研究已从单一地面温度扩展到遥感长波辐射、地表潜热通量、土壤热通量等多个地表能量平衡参数，但异常机理与可靠性等核心问题依然不清晰。本项目拟以典型地震序列为研究对象，基于地表能量平衡过程综合开展多参数识别及其关联性研究。内容包括：1）综合多种同化资料与多源卫星遥感数据开展地震多参数热异常的识别与特征提取；2）根据地震热异常多参数时间-空间-显著度特征库，开展多参数关联性的统计分析；3）通过地下水水位变化对地表能量平衡影响的实验观测模拟构造活动引起的热异常多参数关联性。旨在为特定区域的地震异常诊断识别提供关键参数，为深入理解地震热异常机理提供实验证据。

利用卫星遥感开展地震前的热异常研究已引起国际学术界的广泛关注，被认为是实现地震短临预警的潜在途径。本项目研究成果包括：1）研究揭示了多种同化资料与多源卫星遥感数据在地震热异常识别与特征提取的时空分辨率差异; 2）研究了2008年汶川地震、2010年玉树地震前地下水水温、氡气、潜热通量、长波辐射、地表温度、电子总浓度、ELF/VLF等多参数异常的时空变化特征，发现了岩石圈-盖层-大气层-电离层多个参数在地震前一周内出现准同步异常；3）基于通量塔观测资料研究了地表能量平衡各个参数的变化特征及其关联性，为地震热异常的多参数关联性分析提供了基础；4）以勘察加半岛为例，统计检验了地震前卫星遥感微波辐射异常的普遍性，揭示了地表能量平衡各个参量的变化特征及其相关关系。研究成果将为特定区域的地震异常诊断识别提供关键参数，为深入理解地震热异常形成机理提供支持。