区域抗旱自适应能力形成机制与定量评估方法研究

Adaptive drought-resistance is defined as the ability that is formed by changing their properties of human society system, to resist and adapt for a certain degree of water shortage drought. The formation mechanism of adaptive drought-resistance is currently an international scientific issue in drought science. Taking the Yunnan Province as a case, which has been frequently hit by extreme droughts, the specific objectives of the project with focus on adaptive drought-resistance is as follows：（1）to identify drivers mechanism of adaptive drought-resistance evolution under complicated drought systems;（2）to establish the quantitative evaluation theory and method system of adaptive drought-resistance considering water balance in drought process coupling models for comprehensive drought characterization identification based on water cycle process, water supply dynamic calculation of drought period;（3）to scientifically analyse regional drought coping ability. This research will provide direct scientific supports for regional drought mitigation, coping strategy and water resources planning of Yunnan Province.

抗旱自适应能力是人类社会系统通过改变自身属性而形成的抗御及适应一定程度干旱缺水影响的能力。抗旱自适应能力形成机制是目前国际上干旱领域的关键科学问题。本项目以干旱灾害频繁发生的云南省为研究对象，以抗旱自适应能力为主线，科学揭示复杂旱灾系统中抗旱自适应能力形成机制；构建基于水循环全过程的干旱综合表征及识别模型、场次干旱期抗旱可供水量动态计算模式，形成综合干旱过程水分收支的抗旱自适应能力定量评估理论与方法体系，系统分析区域干旱应对能力，支撑区域防旱减灾与应对策略制定和水资源规划。

抗旱自适应能力形成机制是目前国际上干旱领域的关键科学问题。本研究从自然-社会多属性角度系统分析了抗旱自适应能力构成要素及其耦合作用特性，采用复杂自适应理论，识别了抗旱系统主体影响要素，构建了抗旱复杂适应系统，剖析了抗旱自适应能力特性。同时，基于水循环全过程干旱形成的水分亏缺机理，提出全过程水分亏缺定量化指标，构建了基于水分收支平衡的抗旱自适应能力定量评估模型，形成了抗旱自适应能力定量评估理论与方法体系，并以南盘江上游以上区域为例系统分析其干旱应对能力。结果表明，本文构建的干旱综合表征指标更加适用于评估干旱重现期大于50年一遇的重旱，沾益县的抗旱自适应能力相对较强。研究成果可为区域防旱减灾与应对策略制定和水资源规划提供支撑。