鄱阳湖生态经济区土地生态系统健康演变机理、预警与调控研究

How to strengthen the research of the land ecosystem health has become urgent need to solve various land ecological problems due to the degradation of current land ecosystem health. The land ecosystem health evolution mechanism is the key to study land ecosystem health early warning, While existing references on this research are very lack. Poyang lake ecological economic zone, which has prominent contradictions between protecting resources and developing economy, will be taken as a research object. Firstly, based on the analysis of influence factors of the land ecosystem health, the land ecosystem health evolution mechanism will be explored under the combined action of risk triggered delivery mechanism and risk controlled response mechanism. Secondly, the early warning index system of land ecosystem health will be built by using the variation coefficient method and the entropy method. And spatial - temporal characteristics of land ecosystem health early warning will be studied with the matter - element model. Finally,the regulation system for controlling early warning will be built on the basis of determining of the land ecosystem health alert.This research will not only enrich the land ecosystem health theory, but also expand the channel of the land ecosystem health early warning evaluation. Further, this research will coordinate the contradiction between social economic development and ecological environment protection, and provide a new idea and operational mode for solving the problems of "agriculture, countryside and farmers" and coordinating the relationship between human and land.

当前土地生态系统健康形势严峻，加强土地生态系统健康研究，已成为解决诸多土地生态环境问题的迫切需要。土地生态系统健康演变机理是进行土地生态系统健康预警研究的关键，而现有的文献对此研究很少。本研究以资源保护与经济发展中具有突出矛盾的鄱阳湖生态经济区为研究对象，首先在对土地生态系统健康影响因素分析的基础上，研究在隐患触发传递机制与隐患控制响应机制共同作用下的土地生态系统健康演变机理；然后，以此为基础，采用变异系数法与熵值法构建土地生态系统健康预警评价指标体系，并借助于物元模型对土地生态系统健康警情进行时空特征研究；最后在土地生态系统健康警情判定的基础上，构建土地生态系统健康警情调控体系。本研究不但可以丰富土地生态系统健康的理论，而且将拓展土地生态系统健康预警评价研究的渠道，为协调研究区社会经济发展与生态环境保护的矛盾，解决“三农”问题和协调人地关系提供新思路和可操作模式。

土地生态系统健康与人类社会持续稳定发展息息相关。近年来，作为中部地区重要增长极之一的鄱阳湖生态经济区非农业用地扩大迅速，土地高强度开发、土地利用方式快速转变引发的人地矛盾日趋突出，由此产生水体污染、雾霾、土壤破坏等一系列环境问题。本项目以鄱阳湖生态经济区为研究对象，探讨1995-2015期间隐患触发传递机制与隐患控制响应机制共同作用下的土地生态系统健康演变机理；结合变异系数法与熵值法构建土地生态系统健康预警评价指标体系，借助物元模型对土地生态系统健康警情进行时空特征研究。研究结果表明：1995年到2015年，鄱阳湖生态经济区的土地生态系统健康状况呈现出了由较健康向警戒再向较健康演替的情况，健康警情状况呈现出整体较好态势。2005年是鄱阳湖生态经济区土地生态系统健康警情状况波动的拐点，到2015年，鄱阳湖生态经济区土地生态系统健康警情警度恢复到了较健康的级别。基于警情情景分析，从产业、环境、资源、文化、保障五方面构建研究区土地生态系统健康的排警调控系统。本研究进一步丰富了土地生态系统健康的理论，拓展了土地生态系统健康预警评价研究的渠道。