淡水恢复工程驱动下黄河三角洲湿地生态系统服务动态权衡模型

The ecological restoration project, implemented annually by transferring a amount of water from Yellow River to its delta wetland since 2002, has replenished the vital freshwater resource, and reconstructed the flow regimes, and affect on wetland’s structure, functions, and key ecological process remarkably. In this proposal, the hydrological regime is emphasized on the crucial role in driving ecological processes in the wetland.We aim to address the wetland ecosystem services interaction laws and tradeoff analysis driven by freshwater ecological restoration project, using Yellow River Delta Wetland as a case study. Firstly, we will establish the ecosystem service assessment models using InVEST software in GIS platform, in order to simulate the delivery and spatial distribution of the material production, water purification, climate regulation, flooding prevention, habitat protection, etc. And then, using the structural equation models approach, we will draw up the change process of each ecosystem services, as well as the interaction mechanism among of them, through which we could reveal the growth or decline speed, transformation and breakpoint process of the various types of ecosystem services of wetland driven by the freshwater restoration project, in order to grasp the real response and feedback of ecosystem services to the environmental flow strategies. Finally, we will develop the ecosystem services tradeoff modelling for balancing the ecosystem and human being, in order to discover the quantitative tradeoff rationships and their dynamic conversion pattern. The success of the research above will supply reliable technical support for ecological restoration of the wetland.

自2002年以来每年通过引黄补水开展的黄河三角洲退化湿地淡水恢复工程，为湿地补充了重要淡水资源，重塑了黄河三角洲湿地水文情势，对湿地生态系统结构、服务功能和关键生态过程产生了重要影响。本研究强调淡水恢复工程对驱动湿地生态系统服务动态演变的核心作用，面向淡水恢复工程对湿地生态系统服务演变的影响机理及权衡机制的关键科学问题，拟采用GIS空间叠加分析、InVEST模型模拟、结构方程模型构建等途径，模拟分析湿地物质生产、水质净化、气候调节、调蓄洪水、生物栖息等主导生态系统服务的供给数量和空间分布，研究湿地生态系统驱动-格局-服务的内在机理，明确淡水恢复工程驱动下湿地各类主导生态系统服务演变的转换和突变阈值，发展湿地生态系统服务间动态权衡模型，揭示湿地各类生态系统服务间的定量化权衡关系及其动态转换模式，为黄河三角洲自然保护区湿地的生态综合管理提供理论与技术支撑。

本项目紧紧围绕“淡水恢复工程驱动下黄河三角洲湿地生态系统服务动态权衡”这一关键科学问题开展了研究工作。系统分析了生态补水工程对湿地生态系统服务与生物多样性影响，明确了生态补水工程可显著增强调节服务（如泥沙调节和水质净化）和支撑服务（初级生产力和栖息地维持），可以维持湿地生物多样性和供给服务，揭示了长期生态流量补给对维护生物多样性价值的中庸作用，且执行强度在0-10%之间时有效维护湿地生物多样性和生态系统服务；针对黄河三角洲淡水恢复区，系统揭示了淡水恢复工程对有效降低湿地高盐度带特征的作用，发现淡水恢复工程实施后，大型底栖动物群落多以昆虫纲和甲壳纲为主，群落结构较为单一，补水后大型底栖动物丰度呈现出随沉积物盐度的升高而逐渐降低的态势；系统评估了淡水恢复区生态补水后湿地碳储量、栖息地质量及物质生产服务等主导生态系统服务的显著改善程度，阐明了较高等级碳密度区域突破了原来逐步压缩态势，呈现逐年增加趋势，恢复区中芦苇的比例显著增加，翅碱蓬等喜盐物种在淡水补给区消失，其栖息地质量和碳储量之间存在协同关系，物质生产价值仍有逐步增加的趋势；提出了黄河三角洲淡水恢复区基于生产可能性边界的湿地生态系统服务权衡强度计算方法，并对不同发展情景下，栖息地质量、碳储量和物质生产三种服务进行了权衡强度计算，该模型通过灵活比较不同生态服务间权衡关系分析进行系列管理规划的方案优选，为寻求滨海湿地生态系统服务综合保护与管理提供了新的思路和科学依据。截止到目前，已公开发表期刊发表学术论文16篇（大部分为第一作者或通讯作者，均有标注），其中SCI论文11篇，核心期刊论文5篇。在一定程度上支撑了黄河口湿地生态系统教育部野外科学观测研究站的建设与获批