基于系统动力学和生命周期理论的长三角办公建筑低碳评价与设计方案选优研究

Currently, Low-carbon (LC) Buildings gradually become popular. Lots of LC Technologies are researched and LC Assessment Standards are developed by many countries. However, few studies have been made on the quantitative model of LC Assessment Indicator, Technology Scheme and carbon emissions in the life cycle of buildings. And few studies reported the impact on carbon emissions by greater efficiency of energy utilization, global warming, material thermal property increase, higher design technique and longer life span of buildings during their time. This proposal integrates Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Building Information Model (BIM) with System Dynamics (SD) as a decision-making framework for the dynamic analysis of energy consumption and carbon emissions during the life time of office buildings in Yangtze River delta. Other methods, for example qualitative method combined with quantitative approach, theoretical analysis united with case study, are also used in the process. Then, on this base, we explore a way to dynamically achieve energy-saving and emission-reduction in buildings by combining Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Relative-Entropy (RE) method with Grey relational analysis (GRA) model as an approach for making ordering and optimum choice of design plan.

目前低碳建筑逐渐成为主流趋势，许多国家研发了多种低碳技术设计方案，并制定了建筑低碳评价标准。但是，建筑的低碳评价指标、技术设计方案和全生命周期碳排放的量化关系怎样建构？建模中又如何反映出能源利用效率提高、地球气候变暖、材料热工性能提升、设计水平提高、建筑使用寿命变化等因素对建筑全生命周期碳排放的影响？这类问题还鲜有研究。课题以长三角为例，采取定性与定量相结合、理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法，整合生命周期评价理论（LCA）、建筑信息模型（BIM）技术，对办公建筑全生命周期内的能耗和碳排放状况进行系统动力学（SD）建模和动态分析；然后在此基础上，结合层次分析法(AHP)和相对熵法（RE），利用灰色系统的关联分析法（GRA），对设计方案进行排序和选优，寻找能在动态上实现建筑节能减排的途径和方法。

大量建筑建造与使用是目前能源紧缺、环境恶化的主要原因之一，而建筑低碳化是解决此问题的主要措施。本项目的主要研究内容有：建筑全生命周期内碳源排碳量和碳汇固碳量测算，整合生命周期评价理论（LCA）和建筑信息模型（BIM）技术的办公建筑低碳评价的系统动力学（SD）模型建构，办公建筑低碳设计方案选优。重要结果和关键数据：收集、整理长三角办公建筑案例的全生命周期的清单数据，包括建材用量、施工用电、使用能耗和碳排放等，建立相应的案例数据库。明确了基于系统动力学和灰色理论的办公建筑低碳评价指标与建筑物碳排放量之间的定量关系，在此基础上构建了长三角办公建筑低碳评价的系统动力学模型。完善了办公建筑低碳设计方案选优方法。科学意义：为低碳建筑的设计、建造、运营和评估提供了参考，从而为建筑的节能减排做出贡献。