儿童青少年身高长期变化趋势的模型构建及预测价值研究

The secular trend in human growth is one of the most important biological phenomena since the mid 19th century with increasing body size and decreasing onset age of puberty. Many studies suggested the secular trend in growth owed to the improvements of socioeconomic status (SES) and sanitary and nutrition conditions. According to document review and our previous research, the secular trend in height significantly varied with age groups, showing the height increments in the early life and close to adult are not as much as that around puberty. So far the effect of each of influences on height's secular trend was not fully revealed at different age groups, while the height increment induced by the earlier puberty did not last into adult, which may mislead the comparison on height trend among population samples. Therefore, we aimed to establish a predictive model for the secular trend in height based on SES, puberty, sanitary and nutrition conditions. This model would quantify the effects of the aforementioned influences, obtain their contributing proportion on the height trend and remove the effect of earlier puberty on the height increment to accurately compare among groups. Further, we try to predict the height trend of young populations in different SES regions in the future and provide evidences for multilevel health promotion programs.

人类生长的长期趋势是150多年以来最重要的人类生物学现象之一,其主要表现为身高一代比一代高、青春期发育不断提前等。多数研究认为长期趋势的出现应归功于社会经济的发展、卫生及营养状况的提高。据文献报道和项目团队以往的研究，各年龄段身高（随年代）增长趋势明显不同，在整个儿童期（0~18岁）呈现"两头增长少，中间增长多"非对称不等比例增长的特点。目前的研究没有完全揭示各影响因素对不同年龄段身高趋势的效应大小，在比较不同样本组身高趋势时没有考虑青春期提前的影响。本项目建立基于社会经济状态、青春期、卫生及营养状况的儿童青少年身高长期趋势模型，使各要素对身高趋势的效应由定性认识转变为定量评估，并能计算出各要素的贡献率，扣除青春期提前的效应准确比较各样本组身高"真实"增长趋势的大小，也有利于对我国不同发育水平地区儿童身高未来的发展趋势做出预测，为制定多层次的健康促进政策提供依据。