基于生态位CA-MAS的红壤丘陵区土地利用多目标协同模拟与预警调控研究——以江西兴国县为例

How to coordinate the different land demand for production, residence and ecology, realizing the optimization of territory space exploitation,is an important scientific issue. In order to resolve the main land-use conflicts, maintain ecological security and food security, as well as optimize the pattern of territory space in the hilly red soil region of Southern China, where is an underdeveloped region with fragile ecology, this study aims in Xingguo County, Jiangxi Province, which is the typical hilly red soil region with severe human-land conflict and fragile ecology. Firstly, based on the eco-niche theory and land resourse features of study region, eco-niche suitability of cellular is evaluated from the agricultural production, residence and ecological security, and the regional land-use eco-niche cellar automata (CA) model is constructed. Secondly, based on the macro-regulation of the government agent and the land-use mico-decision behavior of farmers agent and citizens agent, the land-use multi-objective co-simulation model of coupling multi-agent system (MAS) and eco-niche CA is constructed to dynamically simulate the patterns of land-use under the different policy situations, and to prewarn conflicting space between different land-use for the agricultural production, residence and ecological security. Finally, land-use efficiency of simulated land-use patterns are to be evaluated from benefit of eco-niche, coordinated development degree of eco-niche, the landscape structure, protective property of key eco-space, protective property of basic farmland and land-use intensity, and some measures of eliminating-warning are put forward. This study can provide academic basis for the land management of regional government.

如何协调生产、生活与生态等不同用地需求，实现国土空间优化开发是一个重要的科学问题。本项目选取人地矛盾突出、生态脆弱的典型红壤丘陵区--江西兴国县为研究对象，以破解其主要用地矛盾，维护生态安全和粮食安全为主要目标，首先基于生态位理论和研究区土地资源的特点，从农业生产、居住生活与生态安全3个方面，分析元胞的生态位适宜度，构建区域土地利用生态位元胞自动机（CA）模型；然后，基于政府 Agent 的宏观调控行为，及农户 Agent 和城镇居民Agent的微观土地利用决策行为，建立生态位CA和MAS耦合的土地利用多目标协同模拟模型，从空间上动态模拟不同政策目标情景下的研究区土地利用空间格局，预警区域用地冲突的空间位置；最后，从生态位效益度、生态位协调发展度、景观结构、生态保护度、基本农田保护度和土地利用集约度等方面，评估不同情景下土地资源的利用效率，提出合理调控策略，为政府土地管理提供学术依据。

如何协调生产、生活与生态等不同用地需求，实现国土空间优化开发是一个重要的科学问题。本项目选取人地矛盾突出、生态脆弱的典型红壤丘陵区——江西兴国县为研究对象，以破解其主要用地矛盾，维护生态安全和粮食安全为主要目标，综合运用问卷调查、半结构访谈和计量经济模型，实证分析了南方丘陵山区土地利用变化的驱动机制，并着重揭示了农户土地利用决策行为规律。在县域尺度上构建了基于元胞自动机（CA）和蚁群优化算法的区域土地利用多目标协同模拟的基本思路和技术体系，在乡（镇）微域尺度构建了基于景观安全格局法、蚁群智能体优化算法与情景模拟法的乡村空间重构的基本思路和技术体系，并分别以江西省兴国县与长冈乡为案例区开展了实证研究，从空间上动态模拟不同政策目标情景下的土地利用空间格局，预警冲突发生的位置，并评估不同情景下土地资源的利用效率，提出合理调控策略，为政府土地管理提供学术依据。项目研究提出的区域土地利用多目标协同模拟、乡村空间重构的基本思路和技术体系，可为中国南方生态脆弱丘陵山区的土地利用规划与管理提供技术支持。案例区模拟结果及提出的土地利用格局多目标协同优化调控策略与空间分区管制策略，则可直接服务于区域空间规划与管控实践。