城市形态碳排放锁定的路径、机理与调控研究

Urban morphology can lock carbon emission through a variety of paths. To explore the scientific issues of path-dependent and locking mechanism of urban morphology carbon lock-in, will not only help to clarify the intrinsic relationship between urban morphology and carbon emission, but also to promote urban low-carbon development. Based on estimating path characteristic index of urban morphology carbon lock-in and urban carbon emissions, and by taking relational model construction and locking mechanism analysis as the key point, and taking optimization modes and modulation strategies of low-carbon urban morphology as the foothold, we are trying to establish the analysis framework which focus on the path-dependence, locking mechanism, and optimizing regulation of urban morphology impact on urban carbon emission. The project will take the different morphological types of cities in Jiangsu province as an example, and try to resolve the morphological characteristics and carbon lock-in effects of the three carbon lock paths such as urban transport network, urban function space and urban space organization with the help of GIS spatial analysis techniques, and then try to establish econometric model of the relationship between urban morphology and carbon emission using the panel data system, and to reveal the path locked mechanism of urban morphology carbon emission. The project will also pay more attention to analyze the carbon emission response trend along with path dynamic changes, and to establish optimization modes of low-carbon urban morphology. To complete the tasks mentioned above will deepen the understanding of path-dependence and locking mechanism of urban morphology carbon lock-in and enrich the theory and methodology system of both urban geography and urban carbon emission research, and can provide a policy decision reference for Chinese urban low-carbon planning, building and governance.

城市形态通过多种路径锁定碳排放，探讨城市形态碳排放锁定的路径依赖与锁定机理，有助于厘清城市形态与碳排放的内在关系，促进城市低碳发展。本课题以城市形态碳排放锁定路径特征指数测算与碳排放量估算为基础，以城市形态与碳排放关系模型构建及锁定机理分析为关键，以低碳城市形态优化模式与调控策略研究为落脚点，构建城市形态碳排放锁定的路径、机理与调控研究的分析框架。以江苏省不同形态类型的设区城市为例，借助GIS空间分析技术，解析城市交通网络、城市功能空间和城市空间组织三种碳排放锁定路径的形态特征及其碳排放锁定效应，建立面板数据体系下城市形态与碳排放关系的计量模型，揭示城市形态碳排放路径锁定的机理，分析路径动态变化的碳排放响应趋势，构建低碳城市形态优化模式，从而深化对城市形态碳排放锁定的路径依赖与锁定机理的认识，丰富城市地理学与城市碳排放研究的理论与方法体系，为我国城市低碳规划、建设与管治提供决策参考。

城市形态通过多种路径锁定碳排放，探讨城市形态碳排放锁定的路径依赖与锁定机理的科学问题，既是厘清城市形态与碳排放内在关系的需要，也是城市低碳发展的现实需求。基于路径依赖理论与城市形态对碳排放锁定的假设，利用RS、GIS空间分析技术，以淮安市为例，分析了城市空间形态演变的过程、格局与机制，计算了城市空间形态的特征指数。基于清单方法，估算了不同城市相应年份的城市碳排放量。以淮安市为例，从居民出行的角度，分析了城市道路交通对碳排放的影响；以苏州、连云港、常州等城市为例，分析了土地利用变化对碳排放的影响；以无锡、镇江、徐州为例，分析了城市空间形态演变对碳排放影响的效应与机理；以淮安市为例，分析了城市居民生活碳排放的影响因素；以甘肃省、江苏省、常熟市、淮安市等地为例，分析了产业结构演替、现代产业发展与能源消耗的碳排放；在上述研究的基础上，提出低碳城市形态优化调控的目标体系与对策建议。相关研究拓展了城市地理学的研究视角，同时也为我国城市低碳规划、建设与管治提供了决策参考。.本项目已出版专著1部，项目负责人及成员在《Energy Policy》、《Journal of Cleaner Production》、《城市规划》、《地理研究》、《地理科学》、《地理科学进展》、《经济地理》、《干旱区地理》、《地域研究与开发》等中外期刊发表论文18篇，其中SCI、SSCI索引论文3篇，地理学权威或核心期刊论文7篇，申请4项国家实用新型专利并获批准，较好地完成既定的工作任务，对人才培养、团队建设等起到良好支撑。