基于强度减排的碳交易机制对产业竞争力影响的理论研究与ECGE模拟

To achieve the target of carbon intensity reduction effectively by the year of 2020, it is important for China to establish the emission trading scheme(ETS) based on carbon intensity.Internsity-based ETS has great difference among different industries. In an open economy it will influence the international industry competitiveness. Compared with the existing literature, the perspective of this research has two characteristics: Firstly, instead of Cap & Trade scheme, this research will focus on intensity-based ETS. Since China is taking a way of reducing emissions based on the intensity target, it is necessary to distinguish intensity-based ETS from Cap & Trade scheme. Secondly, the industry-level analysis will be another new concern. The industrial effect of carbon price policy is different among various industries, but there is a limited research on the impact of the new carbon emission reduction policy on industry level. .This project mainly includes the following four parts: Firstly, it analyses the different mechanism of industrial competitiveness of intensity-based ETS and .Cap & Trade in theory, extending into the interaction effect between intensity target and Cap & Trade. Secondly, the role of industrial characteristics, input structures and technical characteristics is discussed by establishing an environmental computable general equilibrium model (ECGE) which reflects the competitiveness effect of carbon abatement scheme of China. Thirdly, the potential effect of ETS on industrial competitiveness will be simulated, considering the different ways of added cost changes across the four time horizons, that is, the very short run, the short run, the medium run, and the long run,taking into account the ways that adjustment costs may change over time. After analyzing the bilateral trade flow with the mix of intensity and Cap & Trade in an open economy, the function of international trade will be explored. Fourthly, this research will simulate the change of industry performance according to different regulation and allocation, analyzing the economic effect of policy combination with ETS to reduce the adverse competitiveness impacts..The concern of competitiveness is the forefront of climate policy. This project will improve the efficiency and acceptability of China's climate policy implementation, and provide the theorectical foundation for setting and achieving the future carbon emissions targets in post-Kyoto period.

为了有效地实现我国2020年强度减排目标，建立以强度为基础的碳交易机制是一种重要的市场手段。碳交易机制的实施对不同产业的影响具有很大差异，同一产业在不同阶段也有不同的政策反应。本项目从理论上分析基于强度与基于总量限制下的碳交易机制对产业竞争力的不同影响机理，通过建立反映我国碳减排机制竞争力效应的环境CGE模型（ECGE），探讨产业特征、投入结构和技术特征等在其中所发挥的作用；模拟碳交易机制对产业竞争力在即期、短期、中期和长期的潜在动态影响，考虑适应成本随时间变动的不同方式；分析开放条件下强度与总量这两种碳交易机制的混合对双边贸易流的影响；研究碳交易机制为减轻产业竞争力负面影响的政策工具组合的经济效应。对竞争力的关注是气候政策的前沿，本研究将提高我国气候政策实施的效率和可接受性，同时对后京都议定书时期碳减排目标的制定和实现提供理论依据。

传统的非市场化的环境政策如命令与管制手段以及技术标准会导致资源配置的高成本。因此，虽然命令与控制目前还在广泛使用，但其潜在的高成本使基于市场的环境保护政策受到青睐。当时课题申请的时间是2012年1月，当时国家对碳交易机制的政策规定是“十二五”规划纲要草案中提出要逐步建立碳排放交易机制。在项目研究过程中，随着研究的深入以及中国七个省市试点的碳交易实践的迅速发展，气候变化政策对产业竞争力影响等前沿问题不断涌现。碳排放交易机制是政策创造的交易产品，具有政策与市场的属性，其建设包括机制设计和市场绩效两大部分，前者涉及总量和配额的分配，后者涉及一级市场和二级市场建设，此外还涉及到履约和核定环节。.课题的主要研究内容如下：首先是对碳交易机制的特点以及全国碳排放交易机制七个试点的比较分析及国际比较；其次是依据Weizman经典模型的基础上加以扩展，分析碳交易对产业竞争力影响的微观机制。然后对全国七个试点地区2012——2016年日碳交易数据对碳市场绩效及其流动性的计量分析。之后从三个方面对碳价格及其缓解措施对产业竞争力影响进行实证和模拟分析。最后对2017年即将启动的全国碳交易市场CO2排放权分配效率进行DEA分析，并基于2001-2012年省级面板数据构造减排总成本函数，进而利用边际减排成本（MAC)曲线量化建立统一碳交易市场对社会福利的影响。. 所得结论如下：定价与定量手段的优劣取决于排放的边际收益与成本的相对弹性，因为弹性的不同实际情况中所代表的是企业类型和污染物种类的不同。中国2013年起启动的7个试点碳市场的制度设计体现了发展中国家不完全市场条件下碳交易机制的广泛性、多样性、差异性和灵活性；中国碳市场的流动性与配额发放量呈倒U型关系；碳市场流动性呈现“到期日”效应，临近履约期碳市场流动性明显增强。能源强度和碳排放强度高的部门承担了所有工业部门中的主要成本负担，对关键部门的减缓效应降低了对价格、产出和出口的负面影响，但产生的节能减排效果会有所削弱。碳交易市场的链接存在经济福利的不确定性，利用边际减排成本（MAC)曲线模拟分析了碳交易市场中的成本和福利变化，发现以碳强度衡量的区域异质性会导致MAC曲线的差异化，低碳区MAC曲线呈递增型，高碳区和中碳区的MAC曲线呈倒U型。本研究有助于发现现有碳市场存在的问题，优化碳市场制度设计，从而促进企业通过市场机制增强减排效率。