基于长序列优化模拟的流域干旱应急水源调配研究

Drought is in nature an extreme event in hydrologic cycle. A drought event usually demonstrates a dual feature of certainty and randomness. Drought is first and foremost a resource issue, but will evolve into a disaster issue along with its deterioration. Therefore, a rule of dualistic natural-artificial water cycle should be followed and a risk-based management model should be adopted. Basin-level emergency water source allocation and regulation is one of important approaches for comprehensive drought adaptation. Thus it is vital to identify the scale, structure and distribution of emergency water sources under drought scenarios. From the perspective of the water resources system, the spatio-temporal evolution of drought in the Luanhe River Basin will be assessed. A water resources system network will be drawn based on the characteristics of droughts and the distribution of emergency water sources. Based on long sequence optimization and simulation, a water resources allocation and regulation model will be constructed. It aims to maximize water supply, minimize water shortage and water surplus as well as drought risk. According to the results of drought risk assessment and the ability of drought adaptation in each unit, an allocation and regulation scheme of emergency water source in the Luanhe River Basin will be proposed before evaluating its implementing effects. Theories and technologies related to drought adaptation will also be studied in a changing environment in order to provide a scientific basis to deal with drought problems in the Luanhe River Basin.

干旱应急水源调配是缓解干旱影响、避免旱灾损失的关键，识别干旱情景下应急水源的规模、构成和布局具有重要的意义。干旱首先表现的是资源问题，并随着其发生逐渐向灾害问题演变；干旱事件的本质是水循环过程的极值过程之一，具有确定性和随机性的双重特性，因此，在干旱应对中需要遵循“自然—社会”二元水循环的基本规律，采取风险管理的模式。本项目拟从水资源系统的角度，评价滦河流域干旱时空演变特征；结合流域干旱特征和应急水源分布情况，进行滦河流域水资源系统概化；以水源供水量最大、缺水量最小、弃水量最小、干旱风险最低为目标，构建基于长序列优化模拟的水资源调配模型；依据流域干旱风险评价结果及不同单元干旱风险应对能力，提出滦河流域干旱应急水源调配方案，并评价方案的实施效果。通过本项目研究，将进一步发展变化环境下干旱应对理论与技术，并为滦河流域干旱综合应对提供直接科学依据。

干旱应急水源调配是缓解干旱影响、避免旱灾损失的关键，识别干旱情景下应急水源的规模、构成和布局具有重要的意义。本研究从水资源系统的角度，评价滦河流域干旱时空演变特征；结合流域干旱特征和应急水源分布情况，进行滦河流域水资源系统概化；以水源供水量最大、缺水量最小、弃水量最小、干旱风险最低为目标，构建基于长序列优化模拟的水资源调配模型；依据流域干旱风险评价结果及不同单元干旱风险应对能力，提出滦河流域干旱应急水源调配方案，并评价方案的实施效果。.主要取得以下4个方面的成果：一是滦河流域干旱时空变化规律。滦河流域轻微和中度干旱面积波动上升，严重和极端干旱面积略微下降；流域干旱事件主要集中在中游冀北山地丘陵区，以轻微干旱和中等干旱为主；二是区域水资源系统概化及配置模型构建。结合水文过程的年周期特征，构建了流域长系列年周期序贯决策配置模型；滦河区水资源系统共划分为5大计算单元、6座大型水库的复杂系统网络；三是不同干旱等级下区域水资源配置分析。以极端干旱为例，潘家口、大黑汀、桃林口水库总可供水量为8.77亿m³，优先满足天津用水的话，天津、唐山和秦皇岛分别供水4.19亿m³、2.76亿m³和1.82亿m³；优先满足唐山和秦皇岛用水的话，三市分别供水2.23亿m³、5.21亿m³和1.33亿m³；四是不同干旱等级下天津市应急水源精细化配置。以极端干旱为例，全市各类水源供水总量为25.89亿m³，其中外调水为8.88亿m³，地下水为6.52亿m³。.累计发表10篇学术论文，其中SCI 6篇；出版专著1部；授权专利7项，其中发明专利3项（含国际专利1项）；获省部级特等奖1项、一等奖1项、二等奖2项；培养博士后1名、博士研究生2名、硕士研究生2名。.通过本项目研究，将进一步发展变化环境下干旱应对理论与技术，并为滦河流域干旱综合应对提供直接科学依据。