实体水调度与虚拟水流动耦合视角下的水生态补偿模型研究

The implement of water ecological compensation is a significant method to fulfill China’s national strategy to have the ecology civilization construction. In order to solve the water ecological problems resulted by virtual water reverse flow, which is led by food production center moves northward, this research plan to establish the water ecological compensation model in a coupling sight of entity water dispatching and flowing of virtual water. First, construct the theoretical analytical framework of the research. Second, add entity water dispatching and virtual water flowing into the nature-economic-society water resource system of modern environment. Third, build the regional virtual water flow matrix by relating to the space equilibrium model, and set up the profit and loss account of regional water flowing. And then, establish the water ecological compensation model on the view of water amount compensation, and calculate the value of regional water ecological system by ecosystem service value assessment method. Last, having experiment research by the middle route of south-to-north water transfer project and offering policy suggestions. This research enriches the theoretical system of water ecological compensation, and have significant meaning on China’s water and food safety.

实施水生态补偿是践行生态文明建设国家战略的重要举措，针对粮食生产重心北移进程下虚拟水逆向流动引发的水生态问题，本研究拟构建基于实体水调度与虚拟水流动耦合视角下的水生态补偿模型。首先，构建实体水调度与虚拟水流动耦合视角下的水生态补偿理论分析框架；其次，将实体水调度与虚拟水流动纳入现代环境下自然-经济-社会水资源系统，运用系统动力学模型分析实体水与虚拟水运移转化对水生态系统的影响机理；再次，利用空间均衡模型建立区际间虚拟水流量矩阵，进而构建区域水资源流动盈亏平衡账户；然后，从水量补偿角度构建水生态补偿模型，运用生态系统服务价值评估法测算区域水生态系统服务价值，确定水生态补偿标准；最后选取南水北调中线工程进行实验研究并提出政策建议。本研究将丰富水生态补偿理论体系，对保障国家水安全和粮食安全具有重要意义。

实体水调度与虚拟水流动的双重格局构成了我国水资源系统的新特征，同时实施水生态补偿成为了践行生态文明建设国家战略的重要举措。本课题在构建实体水调度与虚拟水流动耦合视角下的水生态补偿理论分析框架基础上，研究实体水调度与虚拟水流动耦合对水生态的影响机理；分析虚拟水流动空间格局，进而构建区域水资源流动盈亏平衡账户；从水量补偿角度构建水生态补偿模型，确定水生态补偿标准并提出计算机控制算法；最后选取南水北调中线工程进行实验研究。研究构建了虚实结合的二元水生态补偿体系，探讨了基于虚拟水视角的水生态补偿的理论依据，空间均衡模型的实证结果得出了省际间粮食虚拟水生态补偿量区间，通过机会成本法测算了水生态补偿的标准，最后得出水源地生态补偿金额。本研究在理论上拓展和丰富了水生态补偿理论，为水生态补偿价值量化提供丰富的科学信息，实现虚拟水流动量向生态价值量的转化，为构建实体水调度与虚拟水流动视角下的水生态补偿模型提供基础研究支撑；在实践中为跨区域调水工程的水资源调配提供数据支撑和决策依据，进一步完善水生态补偿体系，促进我国生态文明建设和农业绿色发展，也为我国水安全和粮食安全的实现提供保障。