我国小微企业隐性信贷约束研究——基于“气馁”借款人理论

Credit constraints of small and micro enterprises have been the focus of attention for most researches for a long time, but the implicit credit constraints have been given far less attention than needed. A large quantity of evidence from Europe, United States, and Australia indicate that there exist a group of small and micro enterprises which have external financing demand but give up applying for bank loans due to fear of anticipated rejection, namely “discouraged borrower”. However, this group of borrowers has not been incorporated into the main body of research in bank lending and constitutes a part of implicit credit constraints. This project extends both theoretical and empirical research on the implicit credit constraints of small and micro enterprises in China based on the theory of discouraged borrower using the methods of game theory, practical survey and empirical research. Firstly, by taking government supervision, bank’s lending willingness, small business’s willingness and cost of submitting loan application into consideration, theoretical study on the happening mechanism of implicit credit constraints for small and micro enterprises is presented by using the method of evolutionary game theory and numerical simulation. Secondly, a three-stage survey would be carried out in order to obtain the practical evidence. Thirdly, empirical study on the economic consequences and influencing factors of small and micro enterprises’ implicit credit constraints in China is conducted on the basis of measurement of implicit credit constraints. Finally, some suggestion on the perfection of small and micro enterprises lending mechanism is put forward, in order to provide practical guidance to alleviate their implicit credit constraints and improve their credit availability.

小微企业信贷约束一直是学术研究的焦点，但隐性信贷约束却未受到应有的关注。欧洲、美国、澳大利亚的大量调查数据表明，部分存在贷款需求的小微企业在申请银行信贷时遭遇“气馁”，即由于担心被拒绝而放弃向银行申请贷款，但这一群体未被纳入银行信贷的主体研究，属于隐性信贷约束。本项目基于“气馁”借款人理论，运用博弈论、现实调查和实证方法研究我国小微企业隐性信贷约束问题：首先，考虑政府奖惩、银行放贷意愿、企业申贷意愿、企业申贷成本等参数，借助演化博弈和数值模拟方法，深入探析我国小微企业隐性信贷约束的发生机制；其次，通过实地访谈、田野调查、问卷调查等形式开展政府、银行、企业三个层面的现实调查，获取小微企业隐性信贷约束的现实证据；再次，基于对小微企业隐性信贷约束的实证测度，检验其经济后果及影响因素并明确影响路径；最后，提出小微企业信贷机制的完善建议，为缓解我国小微企业隐性信贷约束提供现实指导。

小微企业信贷约束一直是学术研究的焦点，但隐性信贷约束却未受到应有的关注。关于“气馁”借款人这一群体在我国的存在性问题，目前鲜有研究涉及，但已有调查数据显示，贷款申请率不足是导致小微企业信贷可获得性低的主要诱因之一。基于此背景，本项目旨在开展系统、深入的理论分析和实证研究，探寻我国小微企业隐性信贷约束的内在诱因和现实依据。本项目主要围绕以下四个方面展开研究：一是借助演化博弈和数值模拟方法，探析我国小微企业隐性信贷约束的发生机制；二是开展政府、银行、企业三个层面的现实调查，获取小微企业隐性信贷约束的现实证据；三是基于对小微企业隐性信贷约束的实证测度，检验其经济后果及影响因素并明确影响路径；四是小微企业信贷机制的完善研究，为缓解我国小微企业隐性信贷约束提供现实指导。本项目的研究成果主要包括（1）基于信任螺旋和信任响应的概念，进一步探索银行与小微企业信贷关系中信任的产生动机与发展机制，构建了一个包含自利、互利和利他动机的信任函数，并借助数值模型呈现了银企间信任的发展过程。（2）通过调查问卷获取样本，基于银行信任的研究视角，借助广义结构方程模型从三个维度实证检验银行信任对小微企业信贷约束的影响。结果显示，银行对小微企业较高程度的能力信任和诚实信任有助于提升小微企业的信贷可获得性，但对贷款利率及抵押要求无显著影响。（3）借助CHFS开展的2015年小微企业调查数据，从企业主维度和外部环境维度开展对我国小微企业在申请银行信贷中遭遇“气馁”影响因素的实证研究，具体包括企业主的从业经历、金融素养等特征，并进一步研究了货币政策、地区信任水平、金融发展等外部环境因素的调节效应。（4）借助中小板和创业板上市公司数据，分析了我国中小企业在寻求外部短期融资需求过程中银行信贷和商业信用的关系，结果发现，银行信贷与商业信用之间存在替代关系，且这一替代关系在表现更差的公司中更为明显。