基于可变模糊集的梯级水库调度时空敏感生态环境影响定量评估研究

The cascade of water conservancy project has changed ecological environment and divided the river. Meanwhile the projects created all kinds of positive and negative effects. Nowadays the cumulative effect on the influence of ecological environment induced by the cascade of water conservancy project was not still clear the same as the relationship between ecological factors. The method on monitoring the influence of ecological environment and the theory of quantitative evaluation still need research further. Aim to current situation that lack of effective method on quantitative environment evaluation, this study has selected appropriate ecological factors in Qingjiang watershed based on observation datum acquired from former study or spatial technique. The Correlation Degree between ecological factors and reservoir scheduling is researched to reveal the complicated relationship between ecological factors and water level and runoff. An appropriate math model is selected to simulate quantitative relation between ecological factors and water level and runoff. Viewed water level and runoff control in the cascade of water conservancy project as input condition, using quantitative relation of ecological factors, the comprehensive environment influence caused by different reservoir scheduling options is evaluated based on variable fuzzy sets. Meanwhile comparing with reservoir scheduling option without concerning the comprehensive environment influence, the regulatory effect and potential on the negative cumulative environment effect is assessed to deepen the understand ability on ecological environment changes caused by the cascade of water conservancy project.

流域梯级水利工程以集群的方式分割河流、改变生境，产生正负面生态环境影响。目前梯级水库调度生态环境影响累积叠加效应、与各生态因子关联性都还不甚明朗，生态环境影响监测方法和定量评价理论还有待深入研究。针对目前水库调度生态环境影响定量评价能力不足的现状，本项目选择清江流域梯级水利工程为试验区，以前期生态监测项目和基于空间信息技术可以宏观快速获取的生态环境数据为基础，遴选生态指标，开展指标与调度方式关联度研究，逐步认识指标与水位流量相互作用、相互关联的复杂程度，选择合适的数学模型模拟构建生态指标与水位流量的定量联系。以梯级电站间水位流量控制作为输入条件，利用指标定量成果，依据可变模糊集理论开展调度方案优选，定量评价不同调度模式对生态环境造成的综合影响，并与未考虑生态综合效益的调度方案进行比较，评估调度方式对生态环境负面效应累积问题上的可控性和潜力，加深人类对流域梯级水库改变生态环境作用机制的理解。

根据国家自然科学基金青年基金项目《基于可变模糊集的梯级水库调度时空敏感生态环境影响定量评估研究》（51409021）任务书要求，在大量的遥感影像与DEM等数据支持下，研究基于3S技术为主的空间信息技术获取各项生态环境指标的提取方法与理论，开展清江流域遥感地表参数反演以及DEM信息提取工作，获取生态指标的变化规律与宏观趋势，并通过收集观测数据同时相的水位条件分析水库水位控制对该生态指标的对应影响。重视生态环境因子间的“系统性”与“相关性”，遴选出与水位调节关联度大、可控性强、时空敏感的生态因子，构成精简扼要、切实可行的典型生态环境影响综合评价指标体系。通过空间信息技术精准全面的获取水库评价指标体系有关的流域特征信息、自然状态分布。以调度控制的水位条件为主线串联起流域的各类生态环境要素间相互作用、交织的响应变化过程，以整体的、广泛联系的观点看待水库水位调节对生态环境造成的深刻复杂影响其中蕴涵的动态性、非线性、不确定性和模糊性。. 通过多层次模糊综合评判原理构建一种可移植性、可量化的评价体系与方法。通过层次分析法（AHP）计算符合管理目标的权重体系，能够依据流域新形势、工程运行的新目标可以准确客观的调整权重。依据可变模糊理论综合定量评价不同水位方案对水库生态环境造成的综合影响。引入可变模糊集，以相对隶属度的概念去定量描述亦此亦彼的生态效应等级过渡中间地带，改进传统静态模糊评价中等级区间人为割裂自然状态的不合理之处。以此开展调度方案评价，探索梯级水库高度协调、兼顾环境的最佳联合调度模式。