基于小样本案例和多要素降维的水资源供需风险评估建模研究

Assessment of the risk between water supply and water demand is an important foundation and precondition for making water resources planning, controlling and reducing the risk and its losses. Assesment modeling for risk between water supply and water demand, especially the new thinkings and techniques about the small cases and high dimensional risk indicators, are crucial and difficult problems for affecting and restricting water resources risk assesment; it has important scientific significance and application value. Aiming at the complex mechanism of risk between water supply and water demand as well as the difficulty of verification of the risk analysis results, we will analyze the formation mechanism of risk between water supply and water demand, and extract the key risk factors. Furthermore, we will do some researches on assesment modeling techniques of water resources vulnerability, risk probability and risk economic losses; we foucs on exploration of the new ideas and methods based on small cases and high dimensional risk indicators. Through the study, we will extract and refine some innovative ideas and techniques for risk assesment modeling, and providing scientific basis and technical support for water resources management and decision-making.

水资源供需风险评估是合理制定水资源规划、控制和降低风险和损失的重要基础和前提。水资源供需风险评估建模，特别是针对小样本案例和高维风险指标的新思路和新技术，是影响和制约水资源风险评估的重难点问题，具有重要的科学意义和应用价值。本项目针对水资源供需风险机理复杂，风险分析结果难以验证的客观事实，分析水资源供需风险形成机制，提取和筛选水资源供需风险关键影响因子；开展水资源脆弱性、风险概率及风险经济损失评估建模技术研究，重点探索基于小样本案例和高维风险指标的风险评估建模的新思路、新方法。通过研究，提取和凝炼风险评估建模创新思想和实用技术途径，为水资源管理与决策提供科学依据和技术支持。

本项目针对风险评估中的小样本和高维风险指标等重难点问题，开展了水资源脆弱性评估建模、水资源供需风险概率预测建模和水资源供需风险损失评估建模，并开展了应用研究。基于最大熵原理改进经典统计预测模型和投影寻踪模型，解决了水资源风险评估中样本不足和风险因子众多的问题；引入微分方程建模技术，解决了风险评估模型难以构建和验证等技术难题。基于投影寻踪技术对水资源脆弱性指标进行特征信息提取，建立水资源脆弱性非线性评估模型，对北京市水资源脆弱性进行评估和分析。引入标准化信息流算法筛选水资源供需风险敏感因子，建立最大熵-Logistic水资源风险概率预测模型，对北京市和天津市水资源供水短缺概率进行预测，并对泉州市水资源安全风险概率进行预测。构建基于M-Copula和最大熵-Gumbel Copula的水资源供需风险经济损失预估模型，研究天津市及各区县水资源供需风险经济损失的变化趋势。此外，本项目将小样本条件下的水资源风险预测建模技术拓展至少资料地区的极值降水风险预测研究中，对黄河流域、泾河流域和黑河流域部分站点的极值降水风险进行预测。本项目在国内外重要刊物上发表或录用论文16篇，包括9篇SCI，5篇EI，待出版专著1部，荣获军队科学技术进步三等奖和中国水论坛2017年度十佳优秀青年论文奖，申请国家发明专利1项。已提取和凝炼出有创新特色的水资源风险评估建模思想和途径，对水资源管理与决策具有科学意义和应用价值。