结冰飞行多因素耦合情形下的飞行风险评估与建模方法研究

Flight risk under icing conditions is an important issue during the operation of aircraft. The research topic is to study the safety modeling and risk assessment methods of pilot-aircraft complex systems with multi-factor coupling during icing flight; combining static system security analysis with dynamic simulation and deduction, flight simulation with risk assessment and derivation; get breakthroughs in wo key scientific problems: pilot-aircraft system coupled modeling and decoupling of multi-factors, quantitative evaluation and three-dimensional structures modeling during icing flight risk. Based on the multivariate extreme value theory, the distribution of flight parameters under icing conditions is studied and the consistent correlation is analyzed. On this basis, the modeling methods of multiple safety boundary and flight risk structure in icing three-dimensional space are discussed. It is expected that a new method of quantitative flight risk assessment based on the multivariate extreme model and Monte Carlo simulation experiment is proposed theoretically, which can effectively supplement the existing flight safety analysis theory and improve the safety modeling of pilot-aircraft system, ensure the flight safety of aircraft after icing. In practice, it can help the aircraft to avoid high-risk areas in icing areas and provide recommendations and references for correct response. It also has certain engineering application value for the development of risk visualization technology.

结冰条件下的飞行风险是航空器运行过程中面临的一个重要问题。课题以结冰飞行多因素耦合情形下人-机复杂系统安全性建模与风险评估方法为研究对象；将静态的系统安全性分析和动态的仿真推演相融合，飞行仿真与风险评估推演相结合；突破人-机系统多因素耦合建模与解耦机制、结冰飞行风险量化评估与三维结构的建模两个关键科学问题。基于多元极值理论研究结冰条件下飞参的分布规律，分析一致相关性，在此基础上探讨结冰三维空间内多重安全边界与飞行风险结构的建模方法。预期从理论上提出一套基于多元极值模型与蒙特卡洛仿真实验的飞行风险量化评估新方法，可对现有的飞行安全分析理论提供有效的补充，提升人-机系统安全性建模的理论研究水平，保障飞机结冰后的飞行安全；从实践上可为飞机规避结冰区域内的高风险区域，提前做出正确响应提供建议和参考，对于风险可视化技术的发展亦具有一定的工程应用价值。

课题以飞机结冰条件多因素耦合情形下人-机复杂系统安全性建模与风险评估方法为对象。研究了不同结冰状态对翼型和全机气动特性的影响规律、飞机结冰条件下非线性动力学特性、结冰情形下空气动力特性与飞机运动的耦合关系；利用蒙特卡洛仿真法研究了结冰条件下人-机-环系统的非线性、与随机性；构建了结冰条件下的人-机-环分布式虚拟飞行仿真实验系统；利用极值参数构建了结冰条件下导致飞行风险或飞行事故的临界判据。根据上述研究结果，获得典型结冰条件下飞机的空气动力学特性与飞行力学特性耦合变异的机理与规律，揭示了结冰条件下飞机飞行风险或飞行事故的发生机理。突破了结冰多因素耦合建模与解耦机制、结冰飞行风险概率结构建模两个关键科学问题。从理论上提出了一套基于多元极值模型与蒙特卡洛仿真实验的飞行风险量化评估新方法，揭示了结冰飞行多因素耦合情形下飞行风险诱发机理。理论成果可对现有的人-机系统飞行安全分析理论提供有效的补充，提升人-机系统安全性建模的理论研究水平，为航空器的安全性保障工作提供参考。从实践上初步探索了结冰飞行风险概率结构与指示引导方法，构建了结冰空间内的飞行风险概率结构，可为飞机在结冰条件下规避高风险区域提供参考与借鉴，为外部环境作用下的飞行事故预防提供科学的分析和检验依据。