我国东部季风区历史蝗灾时空演变过程及气候适应机理

Current studies of historical locust outbreak are focusing on the Eastern Monsoon Region of China, especially the North China Plain.Through a "Plane-Point-Line" analysis framework, this project aims to disclose the spatial-temporal distribution and evolution process of locust outbreak and to find out the impact mechanism of climate change on locust outbreak. First, this project will collect and standardize the locust data in Eastern China during the historical period especially the last 1000 years to set up locust data bases in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China,reproduce the spatial-temporal distribution and evolution process of locust outbreak, and compare with the drought and flood maps of the last 500 years through GIS techniques. Second, this project will implement time series analysis in typical regions: reconstructing several locust series in the region with frequent and severe locust outbreaks and then comparing locust series with climate series to reveal their correlation. Third, this project will carry out case analysis in typical periods: extracting the severe locust outbreak cases during the period of frequent locust outbreaks and then comparing with the extreme weather and disaster records to make it clear that how temperature, precipitation and other climatic factors affect the formation and evolution of locust outbreaks. At last, this project will try to establish a Geo-spatial Explanation Model to make a quantitative interpretation of the adaptation characteristics and mechanism of locust outbreaks to climate change in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China. This project is expected to offer historical reference and scientific foundation for Eco-environmental protection, disaster risk assessment and disaster reduction strategies.

蝗灾与气候研究已成国际热点，我国东部季风区尤其是华北平原是焦点区域，已有研究至今存在较大分歧。本课题拟基于前期建立的全国历史蝗灾数据库，提取东部华北蝗灾库加以校核补充，尝试"面-线-点"逐步聚焦讨论。首先，空间演变"面"研究：绘制历史蝗灾空间分布图谱，与近五百年旱涝分布图谱对比，直观判识蝗灾与旱涝的关系；其次，时间演变"线"研究：针对蝗灾频发与大发的区域，建立蝗灾指数序列，与气候序列作对比分析，揭示两者的关联；第三，蝗灾事件"点"研究：提取灾害群发与蝗灾频发时期的蝗灾事件，与同期的低温、干旱等极端气候记录进行过程分析，解析气候波动对蝗灾形成与演变的影响尺度与量级；最后，汇总"面-线-点"分析结果，借鉴近现代飞蝗成灾的气象生态学实验结果，阐释蝗灾动态对气候变化的响应关系与适应机理。本课题有望为固有争议的解决提供新的视角和判据，为生态环境保护、大灾风险评估及制定减灾策略提供历史借鉴和决策依据。

基于前期建立的全国历史蝗灾数据库，补充更新了我国东部尤其是华北地区的历史蝗灾等灾异数据库，进而开展“面-线-点”逐步聚焦分析。（1）空间演变“面”研究：主要体现在分区研究中，针对江苏、安徽、河南及华北乃至全国等不同空间范围，按朝代绘制近千年来（宋至民国）历史蝗灾空间分布图谱，与旱、涝、饥荒、瘟疫、战争分布图谱对比，判识蝗灾的空间集散特征及其与旱涝等其它灾异的空间关联；（2）时间演变“线”研究：主要针对蝗灾频发与大发的华北地区，分别构建近千年来（宋至民国）蝗灾年序列、频次序列、县次序列、等级序列，以及整合历史蝗灾强度（等级）与规模（县次）构建的历史蝗灾指数序列，并尝试区分历史蝗灾记录的代次（夏蝗、秋蝗）属性，进而构建更为精细（分辨率至半年）的夏蝗序列和秋蝗序列，与其它灾异和气候序列作对比分析，进而解析蝗灾序列的波动特征及其气候环境意义；（3）蝗灾事件“点”研究：提取灾害群发与蝗灾频发的明清时期的数次重大蝗灾事件（明嘉靖、崇祯，清康熙、咸丰等），与同期的低温、干旱、洪涝及饥荒、瘟疫、战争等进行时空演变过程的关联分析，辨析气候波动等因素对蝗灾形成与演变的影响过程与特征；（4）汇总“面-线-点”分析结果，借鉴生态学与昆虫学研究者对近现代飞蝗成灾的气象生态学实验观测结果，古今融通综合阐释了蝗灾发生动态对气候变化的响应关系与适应机理。