复杂非线性监测数据驱动的机载电子设备剩余寿命预测方法研究

Airborne electronic equipment is the important equipment for performing diverse tasks on an aircraft. Accurately predicting the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of the equipment with a performance degradation trend and taking effective maintenance measures accordingly is an important guarantee for improving the aircraft safety. The data-driven method for the RUL prediction is a frontier scientific problem in the field of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). Its advantage is that it can accurately describe the dynamic behavior of the equipment degradation process and quantify the uncertainties of the prediction results. At present, there are few systematic reports on the key scientific issues such as the evolution of equipment complex nonlinear degradation process, the mechanism of incomplete maintenance activities on the RUL prediction, and the self-adaptive prediction strategy of RUL under accelerated step-stress. The project intends to study: 1) complex nonlinear degradation modeling of equipment and its RUL prediction; 2) cumulative impact modeling of incomplete maintenance activities, RUL online prediction of equipment with incomplete maintenance effects; 3) complex nonlinear degradation modeling and RUL adaptive prediction of equipment under accelerated step-stress; 4) An empirical study is conducted on the performance degradation data of a certain transmitter in airborne Electronic Countermeasure System. The research results of this project can provide technical support for state-based preventive maintenance and intelligent health management. It has an important scientific significance and engineering application value.

机载电子设备是飞机上执行多样化任务的重要设备。准确预测具有性能退化趋势的设备剩余寿命，并据此采取有效维护措施是提高飞机安全性和可靠性的重要保证。数据驱动的剩余寿命预测方法是预测与健康管理领域的前沿科学问题，其优点是能准确刻画设备退化过程的动态行为和量化预测结果的诸多不确定性。目前，对于设备复杂非线性退化过程的演变规律、不完全维护活动对剩余寿命预测的影响机理、步进加速应力下剩余寿命自适应预测策略等关键科学问题鲜有系统的解决方法的报道。本项目拟研究：1）设备复杂非线性退化建模及剩余寿命预测；2）设备不完全维护活动的累积影响建模、融入不完全维护效果的剩余寿命在线预测；3）设备复杂非线性步进加速退化建模、步进加速应力下剩余寿命自适应预测；4）结合机载电子对抗系统发射机实测性能退化数据，开展实证研究。本项目研究成果可为基于状态的预测维护和智能健康管理提供技术支撑，具有重要的科学意义和工程应用价值。

随着航空技术的快速发展，人们对各类电子设备的功能需求逐渐增多，使得设备在构成、功能和应用上变得复杂化、综合化和智能化。受制造工艺和运行环境的影响，不同设备个体之间存在着一定差异性，其直观表现为设备失效阈值的不确定性。当考虑失效阈值的随机性时，准确量化由此引入的剩余寿命预测结果的不确定性影响以及由此带来的维修决策的不确定性，也是当前设备剩余寿命预测研究面临的难点问题。.本项目主要研究内容为：设备复杂非线性退化建模及剩余寿命预测方法；融入不完全维护效果的设备剩余寿命在线预测方法；步进加速应力下设备剩余寿命自适应预测方法；电子对抗系统发射机实证分析。.行波管是靠连续调制电子注的速度来实现放大功能的微波电子管，是发射机的核心部件。通过选取3台B-1193型行波管，进行5000小时的性能退化试验，测量时间间隔为100±5小时，测量参数为输出功率。初始试验时的输出功率为169W，终止试验时的输出功率为163W。结合工程经验和外场实际使用情况，设定发射机输出功率的退化失效阈值为159W。本项目采用线性Wiener过程模型描述行波管的退化过程。根据剩余寿命期望计算公式，可得行波管在运行至5000小时对应的剩余寿命期望值为3280小时。.微波功率模块是新一代已经应用于型号的功率器件，能同时实现真空电子器件大功率、高效率以及半导体器件低噪声、小体积的优点、克服两种器件单独工作时的缺点，可以替代传统行波管。通过选取3台MPM-Kal32-VE01型微波功率模块，进行5000小时的性能退化试验，测量时间间隔为100±5小时，测量参数为输出功率。初始试验时的输出功率为174W，终止试验时的输出功率为167W。本项目采用非线性Wiener过程模型描述行波管的退化过程，根据剩余寿命期望计算公式，可得微波功率模块在运行至5000小时对应的剩余寿命期望约为5984小时..本项目提出的方法可以有效提高设备的剩余寿命预测精度。项目研究成果可用于支撑开展机载电子对抗系统发射机剩余寿命预测与预测维修决策研究。.