考虑区域特征的城市级联灾害风险评估及防控策略研究

With the increasing complexity, especially in the techno-socio-economic-environmental systems highly coupled urban area, all kinds of major events show a tendency of obvious secondary or derivative characteristics. The adverse influence of those disasters may escalate in both space and intensity to eventually result in the formation of cascading disasters. Even the same initial event occurred in different regions will cause distinctive disaster consequences because of the discrepancy among regional environment, which exacerbates the difficulty to evaluate the risk of cascading disasters and prevent or control the cascading effect. In order to explore the risk assessment methods and response strategies for cascading disasters, which have well regional adaptability, this work starts in view of the regional characteristics, and conducts the construction and deducing of cascading disaster scenario based on the modeling of regional disaster systems. Firstly, macroscopic mechanism of multiple disasters and microscopic environment characteristics of hazard-affected regions are taken into account integratedly to find an appropriate modeling method of cascading disaster scenario for urban area. Secondly, through the analysis of the critical factors influencing cascading disaster evolution and their interaction process, a spatial system dynamics model which can reflect the evolutionary scenario of cascading disasters will be built. And the prevention or control strategies will be generalized according to the criteria and objectives of emergency response in emergency plans. In the end, simulation method will be adopted to investigate the optimal strategy-making method to prevent or control the risk of cascading disasters in urban area. The results of this work aim at providing decision support for local government to deal with cascading disaster risk.

随着社会复杂度的不断提高，尤其人-社会-技术-自然系统高度耦合的城市地区，各类重大突发事件呈现出愈加明显的次生、衍生特征，致使灾害影响的空间范围和强度不断升级而形成级联灾害。并且由于区域环境特征的差异，即使相同初始事件，发生在不同区域也可能产生迥异的灾害后果，加剧了级联灾害风险评估和防控的难度。本课题以适应区域特征为出发点，以区域灾害系统抽象建模为基础进行级联灾害情景的构建和推演，旨在探寻具有区域适应性的级联灾害风险评估方法及防控策略。首先，将多灾种宏观致灾机理与反映城市灾害环境的微观特征相结合，研究针对城市区域的级联灾害情景建模方法；其次，分析级联灾害情景演化关键影响因素及其相互作用过程，建立反映级联灾害情景演化的空间动力学模型，并基于应急预案中的应急响应准则和目标归纳级联灾害风险防控策略；最后，通过模拟仿真手段，探讨城市级联灾害情景下的风险控制策略生成方法，为风险应对与决策提供支持。

当代城市区域人-社会-技术-自然系统高度耦合，致使突发事件之间的关联性不断增强，灾害级联发生的风险日益加剧，灾害情景异常复杂，真正实现重大突发事件的“情景-应对”面临诸多困难。在此背景下，如何针对受灾区域特点构建灾害情景模型，并实现对情景演化规律的推理，对于评估区域复杂灾害风险、制定防灾减灾策略、推进应急管理由事后被动应对向事前主动风险管理转变，具有十分重要的意义。根据研究计划，本项目基于典型灾害案例从灾害链的视角，研究了城市级联灾害风险的形成条件及其灾害后果的演化的共性特征，构建了宏观耦合致灾机理与区域微观孕灾环境特征相统一的级联灾害情景概念模型和结构化网络模型，提出了反映级联灾害风险水平的评估测度，并构建了能够反映多灾种耦合致灾过程的灾害情景推演模型，并利用复杂网络分析、仿真模拟等手段，对上述模型与方法的适用性进行了阐释，探索了城市级联灾害风险水平的分析方法及断链减灾策略。依托上述研究内容，本项目与人民出版社出版专著一部，共发表中英文论文7篇（第一标注5篇），其中SCI/SSCI论文4篇，CSSCI论文1篇，北大核心论文3篇，获得辽宁省社会科学学术年会优秀成果奖1项。