基于情景演变的风电弃风和电梯运行交叉融合匹配供电模式研究

There are two factors that can influence repair and maintenance of fan, it includes not only that the wind farm abandoned wind power was enormous but also that the fan tower drum elevator was installed so few. The subject puts forward a power supply mode,namely’ wind farm abandoned wind power add energy-storing compensation power equal the consumption of elevator power’,which was used by each fan installation elevator. Through the method of interdisciplinary fusion, to research on the regulation of abandoned wind and electricity consumption of elevator, to construct abandoned wind power prediction model that continuous quantity with intercross fusing discrete quantity based on uncertainty measure ratio weighted stack , it is through combine latin hypercube sampling with synchronization back zone reduction method to produce possible abandoned wind power scenery and electricity consumption of elevator scenery to describe the randomness of truly abandoned wind power and electricity consumption of elevator. And combine levity, complexity, and instability based on fan operation reliability index and fault probability to study the evaluation method of truly abandoned wind power and electricity consumption of elevator. Regard coupling degree as characteristic parameters to explore the real-time matching mechanism about the abandoned wind power and electricity consumption of elevator.aim for economy and make real-time dynamic adjustment , maintenance and maintenance plan and optimal allocation storage capacity , using adaptive smith predictive method, to make real-time adaptive coordination control methods. bases on non-dimensional method to introduce elevator operation to construct security and economy evaluation model , Dabancheng wind power exemplifies power supply mode and reliability,improving the utilization ratio of abandoned wind power and energy saving, safe operation of the elevator

风电场弃风电量大、风机塔筒电梯安装量少影响风机检修维护，课题提出每台风机安装电梯采用“风电弃风电量+储能补偿电量=电梯消耗电量”供电模式，以交叉学科融合方法，研究弃风电量和电梯耗电量情景演变规律，构建基于不确定性测度值加权叠加的连续量与离散量交叉融合的弃风电量预测模型，采用拉丁超立方采样法和同步回带削减技术生成可能的弃风电量场景和电梯耗电量场景来描述真实弃风电量和电梯耗电量的随机性，研究基于风机运行可靠性指标和故障概率的多变复杂性和不确定性交织关联的真实弃风电量和电梯耗电量评估方法，以耦合度为特征参数探索弃风电量与电梯耗电量的实时匹配机制，采用自适应支持向量机方法，以经济性为目标制定实时动态调整检修维护计划方案和优化配置储能容量，制定实时自适应协调控制策略，基于无因次法引入电梯运行建立安全性与经济性评估模型，以达坂城风电场为例论证供电模式可行性，提高弃风电量利用率、增强电梯节能安全运行。

本课题提出风机安装电梯采用“风电弃风电量+储能补偿电量=电梯消耗电量”供电模式用以解决风电场弃风电量大、风机塔筒电梯安装量少影响风机检修维护问题。以交叉学科融合方法出发，通过研究弃风电量和电梯耗电量情景演变规律，构建了基于LSSVM弃风电量预测模型和基于经验模态分解和马尔科夫链的弃风电量预测模型。研究提出了基于风机运行可靠性指标和故障概率的多变复杂性和不确定性交织关联的真实弃风电量和电梯耗电量评估方法，并以耦合度为特征参数探索弃风电量与电梯耗电量的实时匹配机制，构建基于最小失弃风量的塔筒电梯供电优化调度模型，提出采用改进粒子群算法解决塔筒电梯供电优化调度问题，通过“实时匹配机制-检修计划调整-储能充放补偿”策略，实现提高弃风电量利用率、增强电梯节能安全运行。本项目主要完成成果为发表期刊论文13篇。登记软件著作权6项，申请发明专利7项。培养硕士12人。