随机产出下基于期权契约的季节性产品供应链决策优化与协调管理

With the strong individuation of consumers’ demand and the rapid development of science & technology, more and more products have the characteristics of seasonal products. Therefore,how to make the decision for marketing operation and supply-chain management of seasonal products is a very challenging problem.In recent years, the option contract has been gradually introduced into the study on the supply chain of seasonal products because of its good flexibility and risk-sharing nature. However, most of the existing relevant researchs only considered the uncertainty of the end-market demand, but didn’t involve the yield’s stochastic volatility of the upstream which is widespread in the real world. This proposal will consider the uncertainty of end-market demand as well as upstream’s production yield, systematically explore the optimal operation strategy about production plan, product quality control, supplier selection, purchase ordering, marketing and pricing of all the participants in the seasonal product supply chain based on option and other flexibility contract mechanisms, further involve the impact of different decision or choice preference mixes(such as risk-aversion, loss-aversion,etc.) on their operational decisions, then propose the coordination mechanisms and methods for the supply chain of seasonal products on the basis of option contract. So,this study not only contributes to the development of the theory of business operation and supply chain management, but also provides scientific guidance for the production and operation practices of retaled fashionable or innovative products which widely exist among our China.

随着消费者个性化需求的不断增强和科技的快速发展，季节性产品在我国国民经济中占据的比重越来越大。近年来，期权契约由于其良好的灵活性和风险共担性逐步被引入到季节性产品供应链的研究中，但大多数基于期权契约的相关研究仅考虑了终端市场需求的不确定性，而未涉及到上游制造环节也经常会出现成品产出的随机波动性。基于此，本项目将同时考虑上游生产供应环节的成品产出波动性和终端市场需求的不确定性，系统地探索基于期权等弹性契约机制下季节性产品供应链参与各方的生产投产、产品质量控制、供应商选择、采购订货、营销定价等优化运作策略，进一步融入供应链参与主体不同的选择偏好组合对他们运作决策的影响，并以期权等契约为基础设计能够使得供应链系统达到整体协调运作的管理机制和方法。因此，本项目不仅在理论上能够推动企业运作管理、物流与供应链管理理论的进一步发展，也能为国内大量存在的季节性产品加工或经销企业的生产经营实践提供科学指导。

季节性产品的市场特性决定了生产或经销该类型产品的企业及其供应链系统面临着较大的经营风险，特别是当产品生产工艺较为复杂、质量精度要求高或者产品生产受天气、运输等其他不可控因素的影响，其生产制造环节的成品产出也经常表现出随机不确定性时。因此，本项目研究考虑季节性产品随机产出的供应链运作管理问题具有重要的现实应用背景。三年来，我们主要从以下几个角度对季节性产品的供应链运作管理问题进行了广泛深入的探索：随机产出情况下基于承诺-期权契约的季节性产品供应链的生产与订货策略研究；考虑决策者风险态度的季节性产品供应链合作广告与订货决策研究；融合质量不完美和商业信用的季节性产品经济订货批量模型研究；考虑季节性产品供应链中带有资金约束的零售商时的相关运作研究；以及融合了参与主体决策者的决策选择偏好的季节性产品供应链运作策略研究。相关理论研究结果将能够为从事季节性产品生产或经销的企业开展供应链管理提供一定的指导。