流域水资源复杂系统供水与用水双侧联动智能调控理论及应用

Water resources intelligent allocation theory based on the initial two-dimensional water right and its application in a river basin, as one youth science foundation project, puts forward the definition of ‘two-dimensional water right’ which takes both water quantity and quality into account, and establishes the initial two-dimensional water right allocation model in a water basin; in view of the uncertainty of incoming water and water demand in a basin, it establishes the long-term optimal regulation model of water resources in a basin based on the initial two-dimension water right, and carries out the application research in the Beijiang River Basin. Research results are one academic book, 17 academic papers among which 4 are cited by SCI and 7 by EI, one invention patent. Based on all above, the project extends to the water supply side, analyzes the design method of the multi-period nested intelligent controller by combining the mid long term information of hydrological forecasting, and establishes the basin water resources real-time regulation model in response to optimal regulation model, so that the unification of the long-term optimal operation strategy of water resources system and the real-time regulation goals can be achieved; the project also extends to the water use side by establishing the basin water behavior simulation and structural adaptability regulation model and revealing the response relationship between water use behavior as well as water use structure and external environment of water resources system; in combination with the research results of young science foundation project, it finally establishes the intelligent regulation theory, method and application model system by combining the linkage, planning and real-time of water supply side and water use side of water resources complex system in a basin. In conclusion, it promotes water science’s intersecting and blending with multiple disciplines, such as system science, intelligence science and so on, and enriches the content of water resources regulation theory, and provides the technical support for the implementation of the strictest water resources management system.

青年基金项目提出了考虑水量与水质的“二维水权”概念，建立了流域初始二维水权分配模型；考虑流域来水与需水不确定性，建立了基于初始二维水权的流域水资源长期优化调控模型，并在北江流域取得了成功应用。出版专著1部，完成学术论文17篇，其中SCI检索4篇、EI检索7篇，获发明专利1项。本项目以上述成果为基础，向供水侧延伸，结合中长期水文预报信息，设计多时段嵌套智能控制器，建立与优化调控模型相衔接的流域水资源实时调控模型，实现水资源系统长期优化运行策略与实时调控目标的统一；向用水侧拓展，建立流域用水行为模拟与结构适应性调控模型，揭示用水系统外部环境与用水行为及用水结构的响应关系；连同青年基金研究成果构建规划与实时结合的流域水资源复杂系统供水与用水双侧联动智能调控理论、方法和应用模式体系。本项目将推动水利科学与系统科学、智能科学的融合集成发展，丰富水资源调控理论，为落实最严格水资源管理制度提供技术基础。

本项目为青年科学基金项目“基于初始二维水权的流域水资源智能调控研究”（编号50909063）的连续资助项目，旨在考虑流域来水与地区需水的不确定性、水量与水环境容量的相互作用关系，以及产业结构调整、用水效率提高的必要性和复杂性，围绕丰水地区“流域初始水权分配方案如何通过调度实现？”和“最严格水资源管理制度在流域层面如何考核、评估和调控、落实？”这两个当前需要迫切解决的关键科科技需求问题，从流域水资源系统供给侧和需求侧两个方面进行拓展研究。首先，考虑水利工程体系长期最优运行策略约束，灵活响应流域来水和用水申请随机变动的多时段滚动嵌套实时调控模型与方法。进而，基于扩展型水资源-经济-环境投入产出表的流域用水结构适应性调控理论与方法。其次，耦合区域宏观经济模型、区域需水预测模型、污染物排放预测模型、水资源模拟仿真模型、水功能区水质达标排放模型，建立了流域供水与用水双侧联动调控模型体系。再次，以中国北江流域为背景，应用上述提出的理论、方法，提出了满足初始二维水权总量控制目标的水库群联合优化调度图和水资源系统长期运行策略、实时调控平台，提出了满足三条红线约束的区域用水结构调控方案。最后，通过成果的凝练提升，提出了流域水资源复杂系统供水与用水双侧联动调控的理论、方法和应用模式体系。此外，还将上述成果推广应用于南四湖流域，建立了南水北调东线工程扰动下的受水区多水源配置与工程调控两阶段模型，提出了农业种植结构调整-多水源优化配置-大型蓄水工程动态调控于一体的模型体系。研究成果丰富了变化环境（政策变动、水源组成等）的流域水资源配置理论，在流域水资源统一调度与运行管理中具有重要的应用前景。出版专著2部，成功申请发明专利5项，软件著作权1项，发表学术论文27篇（SCI、EI 检索12篇），获得省部级科技进步二等奖1项（排名第2），召集并承办“变化水文过程与水资源调控”学术研讨会一次（参会人数80人以上），参加国外内外学术会议20余人次，协助培养硕士和博士研究生各1名。