机动车柔性限行政策研究及其对PM2.5的改善作用

With the rapid increase of vehicle ownership, the engine emissions impact on PM2.5 has become increasingly serious. Traffic congestion has become increasingly serious, motor vehicle running at low speed for a long time, caused the deterioration of PM2.5. Therefore limit vehicles and reduce engine exhaust emission, improve the vehicle speed is an important measure to control and reduce PM2.5. First proposed flexible restrictions policy based on vehicle identification. The motor vehicle exhaust emissions and PM2.5 value relationship. Proportion of restrictions on average vehicle speed, vehicle exhaust emissions and PM2. 5 value. The influence of such factors as Study the influence of the proportion of restrictions on people travel way, explore the different proportion of restrictions under the collection principle of road congestion charge. Establish flexible restrictions policy model of motor vehicle to city the amount of cars on the roads and residents travel fairness index as a flexible limit the objective function, the optimal proportion of restrictions. In guarantee normal travel under the condition of minimal impact to the owner, to control the total road motor vehicles, motor vehicle exhaust emissions and PM2.5. The objective of the research results, proposed to solve the problem of urban traffic congestion, improve motor vehicle running speed, reduce the engine emissions, reduce exhaust of PM2.5 pollution sources, and has significant meaning.

随着机动车保有量的急剧增加，发动机排放对PM2.5的影响日益严重。交通拥堵逐步加剧，机动车长时间低速运行，进一步造成PM2.5的恶化。因此限制车辆上路，减少发动机尾气排放，提高机动车行驶速度是控制和减少PM2.5重要措施。首次提出基于车辆识别的柔性限行政策。研究机动车尾气排放与PM2.5值的关系。研究限行比例对机动车平均行驶速度、机动车尾气排放总量、PM2. 5值等因素的影响。研究限行比例对人们出行方式的影响，探索不同限行比例下道路拥堵费的收取原则。建立机动车柔性限行政策模型，以城市机动车上路总量和居民出行公平性指标作为柔性限行的目标函数，寻求最佳的限行比例。在保证对车主正常出行影响最小的情况下，控制上路机动车总量、机动车尾气排放总量以及PM2.5。本项目的研究成果，拟对解决我国城市交通的拥堵问题，提升机动车运行速度，减少发动机尾气排放，降低尾气中PM2.5污染源，具有重要意义。

为了缓解机动车排放对PM2.5的影响，针对现有国内限行政策的不足，提出了机动车柔性限行政策：以每周5个工作日为基本单位对小汽车（出租车除外）进行限行，只要车主每周实际出行天数不超过规定的可出行天数即可。该政策对减少拥堵、提高车速、降低排放和节省燃料都具有明显的作用。为了能够更好地落实柔性限行政策，提出以下三点建议：（1）除对城市严重拥堵区域征收交通拥堵费之外，通过差别化的经济鼓励手段，促使车辆限行成为社会自律持久行为；（2）加快开发和实施公交车舒适度监控评价系统和家用车辆智能搭乘系统来配合柔性限行政策；（3）政府机关应当发挥其率先示范作用，采取以鼓励为主的绿色交通措施，建立城市绿色、低碳、智慧公共交通服务体系。