跨海通道效应分析理论方法及评估模型研究

The trans-strait fixed links can greatly enhance the transport and economic connection of the urban agglomerations separated by the river or strait, and produce an increase in accessibility that positively affects the competitiveness of the economic system and favors the appearance of specialization benefits and scale economies. The trans-strait fixed links and it impacts on regional accessibility, inter-cities economic link, and its diffusion effect and process is still in its infancy and can be one of the most paradigmatic examples that can be further explored. This research focuses on the Fixed Links (HuMen Bridge, Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge and Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge) in Pearl River Delta. The research can be divided into three parts except literature review and research design. The first part explores interactive mechanism regional traffic patterns and the bridge,and analyzes the changed accessibility after the construction of the fixed links. The traditional accessibility model will be adjusted by elaborately evaluating the non-transport grid. With ArcGIS, the matrix of the shortest travel time between every cities will be acquired, the spatial pattern and changed level of accessibility will be analyzed under different fixed links circumstances. The second part demonstrates the relationship of regional development and the Fixed links in terms of regional urban system and industries, calculates the strength of regional linkage based on the gravity model. The intensity and strength of regional economic linkage and disparity characteristics will be analyzed, the structure and direction of the economic linkage before and after the fixed links will be quantified. The third part quantitative analyzes the spatial feature and discipline of land use change after the construction of the bridge,presents a simulation model to demonstrate the distribution effect. We will construct a theoretical model under ideal conditions and analysis the feature of distribution process and dynamic stages. The counterbalance or interactive relationship of the regional economic development inertial property and the distribution effect will be investigated with the case study of Pearl River Delta. The aims of this research are: (1) construct a theoretical model to illustrate the aggregation and distribution effect of the fixed links' impact on regional economic development; (2) modify the accessibility model and inter-city economic link model to quantify the spatial configuration and intensity of the changed accessibility and structure of the linkage between each cities; (3) try to explain the mechanisms and process of the fixed links and the regional economic development.

跨海通道弱化空间阻隔，加强分割区域联系，更新区位与资源配置，区域空间结构重组，通道产生显著的空间效应。本研究力图建立一套跨海通道效应分析理论方法，并从交通格局、空间结构、影响过程构建通道效应评估模型。首先剖析跨海通道与区域交通格局互动关系，借助可达性分析识别跨海通道对交通格局影响空间分布，刻画交通格局空间变化范围和程度；然后借用空间场强理论，从城市和产业角度刻画通道对区域经济空间格局的影响机制，利用区域经济联系模型定量分析跨海通道对城市间经济联系强度和方向影响及结构特征；最后对国内外跨海通道(英吉利海峡隧道、?resund通道和虎门大桥)多年份遥感影像解析，定量分析跨海通道与区域土地利用变化规律和特征，探索通道效应空间集聚和扩散过程及特点，构建理想状态下跨海通道影响的空间集聚与扩散模型。本研究可完善空间结构和过程理论，深化跨海通道经济社会效应评估研究框架，为未来跨海通道建设提供理论指导。

我国近年来不断推进跨海大桥建设，包括杭州湾大桥、港珠澳大桥、渤海湾通道、台湾海峡通道的建设都将极大促进区域经济发展，改变区域空间结构，迫切需要加强跨海大桥空间效应分析和评估理论研究。本研究以跨海大桥为研究对象，通过定量分析模型和案例定性分析方法，从交通发展格局、区域空间结构和影响过程特征等角度构建了一套跨海通道空间效应分析理论模型。主要研究内容和结果包括：①构建了两个多跨海通道对区域可达性影响的分析模型，弥补传统分析模型对线路选择和空间分辨率评估的不足，并申请专利。②跨海通道连接不同交通网络形态（轴辐、离散网络）节点后，区域交通网络结构会明显变化，交通枢纽中心性进一步提升，部分轴线重要性加强。③成本（时间）是跨海大桥对区域经济影响的重要因素，跨海大桥对海峡两岸城市的不同产业（资源依托型产业、要素自由流动型产业、成本敏感型产业）影响具有差异性，具有要素优势的城市将成为受益地区。④以虎门大桥建设前后两岸土地利用变化的分析，分析了跨海大桥区域影响空间扩散的“空间跨越、线性增值和层次拓展”三大特征，并首次构建了跨海大桥对区域城市群和交通网络的过程模型。⑤基于珠三角的案例分析，创新性提出了跨海通道空间效应模型，跨海通道显著提升珠江口两岸城市经济联系，两岸城市发展将更加均衡。⑥跨海通道案例研究。重点对珠三角的跨海通道，包括港珠澳大桥、深中通道进行了深入系统的分析和模拟，同时也对我国未来三大世纪性跨海工程，包括渤海湾通道、台湾海峡通道以及琼州海峡通道进行了模拟分析。本项目关于的跨海通道空间效应的成果，深化了交通地理学研究理论，也为我国未来跨海通道建设分析评估提供了理论依据。