兴安落叶松林雷击火蔓延模型研究与系统构建

Lightning fire is one of the major forest fire sources in Northern China. It spreads differently from other sources. The research targets on the lightning fire of Larix gmelinii forest in Northern China. Lightning fire is featured with multiple ignitions, overlapping fire spots and so on. Therefore, GIS mapping, remote sensing interpretation, field survey and other techniques are applied to investigate the lightning fire spots. The research chooses sample fields and collects the relevant factors showing the characteristics of lightning fire spread, such as the meteorological factors, the terrain, fire intensity, fire spot changes etc. With data analysis, the statistics necessary for the simulation of lightning fire spread are obtained and the database is going to be constructed. Based on various forest fire spread models, a multi-model-comparative simulation software system of lightning fire spread is developed. The spread simulation uses the factual statistics collected from the forest fire spots. After modifying and improving the model parameters, the accuracies of different spread models are compared and a set of practical techniques is developed for the studies on the simulation of lightning fire spread. The research can provide practical tools and theoretical basis for the decision making and management of lightning-fire fighting.

雷击火是我国北方林区森林火灾的重要火源，其蔓延特点也有别于其他火源。本研究以我国大兴安岭林区兴安落叶松林雷击火为研究对象，针对雷击火的多点起燃、火场重叠等特点，应用GIS测绘、遥感解译、地面调查、等技术手段对雷击火场进行野外调查，设立样地采集气象、地形、火烧强度、火场变化等反映雷击火蔓延特征的相关要素，经数据整理与分析，获得雷击火场蔓延模拟所需的必要数据，建立相应数据库。结合多种林火蔓延模型，开发一套基于多模型对照的雷击火蔓延模拟软件系统，使用实际火场数据进行蔓延模拟，修正与改进模型参数后，比较多种林火蔓延模型之间的模拟精度，形成一套雷击火蔓延模拟研究的实用技术手段。本研究将为雷击火扑救的决策与管理提供更有效的实用工具与科学理论依据。

本项目针对雷击火产生的突发性、随机性、重复性，以及发展的复杂多变、监测难度大、对森林生态系统破坏性大等特点，以我国北方兴安落叶松林为研究对象，结合地面调查、资料搜集与分析、模型分析、软件系统开发、模型改进、统计分析等内容，利用真实雷击火历史数据及环境数据，结合现有模型及计算机技术，依照雷击火场的发生与发展规律，建立了兴安落叶松林雷击火历史案例数据库，结合自主研发的可燃物含水率检测系统进行含水率预测，构建了基于多模型集成的雷击火蔓延模拟软件系统，形成了一套火蔓延模拟研究的实用技术手段，为各个火蔓延模型的实用性与适用性对照提供了实践基础，并为林火扑救的决策与管理提供更有效的实用工具与科学依据。