考虑事故演化多重风险的大电网限流措施优化配置研究

With the development of interconnected power grids, the problem of short circuit current has been aggravated and received increasing attention. To resist short circuit faults, some current limiting measures are considered in power system planning and operation, i.e., hierarchical partition, busbar separation and fault current limiter installation, etc. While, due to the inherent uncertainty and causal evolution characteristic of faults, the realistic current limiting decision is a complex problem. It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to develop risk-based optimal configuration of current limiting measures, considering both the probability and consequence of short circuit fault..In an integrated identification-assessment-control framework of risk, this proposed project analyzes the evolution procedure of some typical short circuit faults and establishes a quantitative index system for fault consequence evaluation. Some data driven methods are utilized to explore the fault probability and help assess the short circuit risk of power system. On the basis of quantified risk, a multi-objective optimal allocation model of current limiting measures is proposed to achieve a trade-off between economy and safety. A multi-period coordination approach for short circuit risk prevention planning and emergency control is also invented to ensure the safety of power system. .The results of this project are capable in providing some support and promotion for planning and operation of strong smart grids.

随着大区互联的发展，电网规模不断扩大，电力系统短路电流越限问题变得日益严重。有必要在电网规划和运行中考虑分层分区、母线分列、安装故障限流器等限流措施，提高电力系统对短路故障的抵御能力。但故障的固有不确定性和连锁演化特征给限流方案决策带来了一系列复杂问题。在此背景下，综合短路故障的发生概率和多方面后果，实现基于风险的限流措施综合优化配置具有重大现实意义和科学价值。.在风险“辨识-评估-控制”的统一框架下，本项目通过分析典型短路故障的演化机理，建立事故后果量化指标体系；运用机器学习方法，探索基于事故学习-数据驱动的短路概率映射关系，实现大电网短路风险评估。在此基础上，提出基于风险的限流措施多目标优化配置模型，实现经济性与安全性的统一权衡；提出短路风险预防规划与紧急控制多时间尺度协调方法，保障电网安全可靠运行。.本项目研究成果将为坚强智能电网背景下的电网规划和运行风险防控提供一定理论支撑。

随着大区互联的发展，电网规模不断扩大，电力系统短路电流越限问题变得日益严重。有必要在电网规划和运行中考虑严重短路故障的防御问题，但故障的不确定性和连锁演化特征增加了该问题难度。在此背景下，综合故障概率和多方面后果，实现基于风险的短路防御具有重大现实意义和科学价值。本项目取得的研究成果包括：1）建立了考虑灾变的复杂电网短路风险量化模型；2）提出了多目标、多场景的大电网故障限流器优化配置方法；3）提出了基于限流器规划与投切协调的短路风险精准控制策略；4）提出了基于需求侧负荷调控的短路次生电压、频率越限治理技术。.项目的科学意义体现在通过项目的成功实施，极大提升了大电网限流设备的优化配置能力，实现了基于故障演化的短路风险综合优化控制，在一定程度上创新与提升了电网灾害防御体系，使电力系统运行更加安全可靠，为构建短路等严重故障下的高韧性电网提供了一定理论支撑。 .本项目共发表/录用高水平期刊论文18篇，其中SCI收录16篇，EI收录2篇；参与培养硕、博士研究生6名，其中已毕业2人；申请发明专利7项，其中授权5项；项目负责人组织著名期刊专刊1次、国际会议Panel Session 3次，进行国际会议报告3次，组织项目组成员参加国际会议3人次。