基于总量控制的天山北坡灌区水资源高效调配机制研究

Water resources are the lifeblood of the national economy and ecological environment in the arid areas.One of the effective measures to promote economic development and curb the deterioration of the ecological environment is rational distribution water resources. How to strictly implement total water consumption control and improve water using efficiency and ensure the sustainable utilization of the agricultural economy in arid area is a subject worthy of study.The northern piedmont of Tianshan mountain is the important area in Xinjiang where the development of water saving irrigation is super while the water resources is shortage. The study of agricultural water resources allocation in this irrigation area is very useful. The study will focus on the irrigation area of the northern piedmont of Tianshan mountain.The snowmelt runoff will be predicted. According to the target of the lest water shortage under the condion of many years of incoming water,considering of factors of the total water amount control,the conjunctive operation model of reservoirs and wells will be established. The large-scale system decomposition-coordination technique will be used to solve the model and get optimal operation mode. Based on operation rule,the water allocation mechanism under various sources of water will be studied considering of the water using limit of surface water and groundwater and the different water using period. The water allocation evaluation model will be established to get the most suitable rule.The study will provide theory and technical support for achieving the integration of operation and allocation and high efficiency using and sustainable development of water resources in the irrigation area.

水资源是干旱绿洲区国民经济和生态环境的命脉，合理地调配水资源是促进干旱区经济发展，遏制生态环境恶化的有效措施之一。如何严格实行用水总量控制，提高用水效率，真实节水，保障干旱区农业经济的可持续发展，是一个值得研究的科学问题。天山北坡是新疆优先发展的重点地区，节水灌溉的发展处于新疆的领先地位，但灌区水资源仍然缺乏，对其农业水资源调配机制进行分析研究具有重要的指导意义。本文以天山北坡灌区为研究对象，对其融雪径流进行分析预测，以多年平均条件下灌区缺水总量最小为目标，考虑供水总量控制等因素，建立水库机井联合调度模型，运用大系统分解协调等方法对模型进行求解，获得最优水库机井调度模式。并以此为基础，研究多水源共同作用下，基于地表水及地下水限额的配水机制；建立水量调配评价模型，得到合理可行的灌区水资源调配策略，为实现灌区水资源调度配置一体化以及灌区水资源高效、可持续利用提供理论和技术支持。

针对新疆天山北坡灌区水资源时空分布不均、地下水超采严重和水资源管理制度不完善等问题，开展了基于总量控制的天山北坡灌区水资源高效调配机制研究。项目以新疆天山北坡灌区为研究对象，结合河流融雪补给的特征，建立SRM模型进行了融雪径流模拟，考虑到变化环境下径流极值事件频发，进行了径流极值序列的非平稳性识别及预测分析；构建了灌区水库-地下水联合调度模型，研究了水库-地下水联合调度规则及水库机井调度模式；根据各灌区的特点，建立了渠系水资源配置优化模型和输水管网管径优化模型，为灌区配水过程提供了技术支持；最后，针对灌区不同的水资源配置策略，构建了干旱区水资源配置方案评价指标体系，建立了基于投影寻踪动态聚类（PPDC）的水资源配置方案评价模型，并结合实例分析了模型的适用性。结果表明：在变化环境下，天山北坡金沟河流域的径流极值序列具有非平稳性，建立的SRM模型能很好地模拟金沟河的融雪径流；通过水库-地下水联合调度模型分析，军塘湖河流域灌区地表水和地下水的用水量都可得到控制，从长期看有利于该区域的水资源可持续利用；实例分析表明，建立的渠系优化配水模型和管网管径优化模型能够满足灌区渠系配水和实际工程的需求，模型及其求解方法具有较强的适用性；干旱区水资源配置评价指标体系，以及PPDC能够全面评估不同配置方案对区域社会、经济、生态环境等方面影响，通过评价模型评价优选配置方案，可更好地服务于区域水资源管理。