城市间关键基础设施系统的资源协同应急能力研究

The purpose of this research is to explore the theory and method of the resource collaborative emergency ability of the intercity critical infrastructure (CI) system, and its characteristics lie in breaking through the limit of merely focusing on the CI engineering management and making intercity CI physical network, social system and governance system merge in a uniform system. Meanwhile, it also takes into account those usually ignored elements-the risk of the CI service failure, the dependence relation between the emergency response and CI service, etc. The main research content of the research includes: 1. the risk assessment of the intercity CI system's service failure and the analysis of the stakeholder's heterogeneity behavior law; 2. the scenario analysis and influence mechanism of the risk that major disasters insert into the intercity CI system; 3. the design method of the emergency plan of the intercity CI system resource, which is based on the compatible perspective of plan-resource-capacity; 4. the establishment, optimization and policy analysis of the resource collaborative emergency mechanism of the intercity CI system; 5. the evaluation methodology and policy recommendation of the resource collaborative emergency ability of the intercity CI system. For establishing and perfecting the knowledge hierarchy of the resource collaborative emergency ability of the intercity CI system, this research makes sense in theoretical innovation. Besides, it can be applied to the entire life cycle of the risk assessment of the intercity CI system security and provide decision support for the resource collaborative emergency management of the national CI system and the design of the next generation of the fault-tolerant infrastructure.

本研究目的是探索城市间关键基础设施（CI）系统资源协同应急能力的理论与方法，其特色在于突破以往仅关注CI工程管理思想局限，将城市间CI物理网络、社会系统、治理体系等融合于统一的系统之中，还考虑了CI服务缺失风险、应急响应行动与CI服务的相互依赖关系等常被忽略的因素。主要研究内容：1.城市间CI系统的服务缺失风险评估和利益相关者异质性行为规律分析；2.重大灾害对城市间CI系统的风险嵌入情境分析和影响机理；3.基于预案-资源-能力契合视角的城市间CI系统资源协同应急预案设计方法；4.城市间CI系统资源协同应急机制的建立、优化及政策分析；5.城市间CI系统资源协同应急能力评价方法及政策建议。本研究对于建立和完善城市间CI系统资源协同应急能力的知识体系具有理论原创意义，可应用于城市间CI系统安全风险管理的整个生命周期之内，为国家层面的CI系统资源协同应急管理和下一代容错基础设施设计提供支持。

现代社会公共安全高度依赖于关键基础设施，当伴随有关键基础设施失效的重大危机发生时，城市间的协同应急能力对整体危机应急救援响应行动的开展至关重要。本项目的特色在于突破以往仅关注CI工程管理思想局限，将城市间CI物理网络、社会系统、治理体系等融合于统一的系统之中，还考虑了CI服务缺失风险、应急响应行动与CI服务的相互依赖关系等常被忽略的因素。项目的主要研究成果如下：1. 分析了城市间公众风险认知能力评价要素，建立了评价指标体系，系统地研究了城市间CI系统的服务缺失风险评估和利益相关者异质性行为规律；2.剖析了重大灾害对城市间CI系统的风险嵌入情境分析和影响机理；3.提出了基于预案-资源-能力契合视角的城市间CI系统资源协同应急预案设计方法；4.构建了城市间CI系统资源协同应急机制、给出了优化设计方法并进行了政策分析；5.提出了城市间CI系统资源协同应急能力评价方法及政策建议；6.选取了震灾应急物资紧急需求预测指标，构建了基于CBR-ARIMA 应急物资需求预测模型；7.构建了基于多目标规划的调度优化决策模型；8.分析了基于合作博弈理论的应急物流协同机制，建立了基于AHP-Entropy的公众应急反应能力评价模型。本研究对于建立和完善城市间CI系统资源协同应急能力的知识体系具有理论原创意义，可应用于城市间CI系统安全风险管理的整个生命周期之内，为国家层面的CI系统资源协同应急管理和下一代容错基础设施设计、优化和完善城市间突发事件应急响应机制、提升公众的应急反应能力提供支持。