煤矿安全组织行为与个体行为交互规律实证研究

Because of the terrible sustainability in the way of behavior-based safety intervention, it is difficult to completely eradicate unsafe behaviors. As a result, the accidents occur continuously in coal mine. The path and method for controlling unsafe behavior can be found, through deeply recognizing the interaction between organizational behavior and individual behavior of coal mine safety. Obviously, many complex problems and limited methods cause superficial analysis for the mechanism of unsafe behavior. Meanwhile, the fuzzy relationships between organizational and individual behavior also restrict the application effect of behavioral science. Based on the previous research, the functional path, influence factor and inherent law between organizational behavior and individual behavior will be explored and the influencing factors, the strength and the control conditions of the unsafe behavior will be found in this research. The interaction coupling model of organizational behavior and individual behavior in coal mine safety will be constructed by means of system dynamics modeling and agent based modeling, which is for pointing out the systematic and programmed characterization between organizational and individual behavior in coal mining. Experimental design, modeling and simulation technology are beneficial for cognition of sustaining feedback between organizational and individual behavior, and they also confirm and analyze the rule and characteristic of safety behavior especially for unsafe behavior of coal mining. Overall, a good safety theory can enhance the efficiency of safety management, and then control unsafe behavior and prevent the accidents.

由于行为安全方法干预效果可持续性差，难以杜绝不安全行为，导致煤矿事故时有发生。深化煤矿安全组织行为与个体行为交互规律的认识，能从根本上找到控制不安全行为的路径和方法。由于问题的复杂和方法的局限，造成对不安全行为内在机理分析不深入，组织行为与个体行为的作用关系不清楚，制约了行为科学的应用效果。在前期研究基础上，探究煤矿事故形成过程中组织行为对个体行为的作用路径、影响因素和内在规律，发现煤矿不安全行为产生过程中的影响因素、作用强度及制约条件；运用系统动力学建模和主体建模，对煤矿安全组织行为和个体行为及其交互规律进行系统化、程序化的表征，构建出煤矿安全组织行为与个体行为的交互耦合模型；通过实验设计和建模仿真技术，实现对组织行为与个体行为之间认知的不断反馈，实证分析并验证煤矿安全相关行为特别是不安全行为的特征与规律，不断夯实行为安全理论基础，提升安全管理效能，有效控制不安全行为，预防煤矿安全事故。

由于行为安全方法干预效果不明显、可持续性差，难以杜绝不安全行为，导致煤矿事故难以根除。挖掘矿工不安全行为影响机理，深化煤矿安全组织行为与个体行为交互规律的认识，能从根本上找到有效的行为安全干预方法和实施路径。由于研究问题的复杂性和方法的局限性，组织行为与个体行为的研究处于割裂状态，两者之间的交互规律认识不足，制约了行为科学的应用效果。通过构建矿工不安全行为影响机理模型，揭示煤矿不安全行为产生的根源、影响因素、作用强度及其制约条件，深刻认知组织行为对个体行为的作用机理；基于深度学习，从人—机—环3方面构建不安全因素识别层，构建不安全因素识别和交互分析模型，并将人工智能等新兴技术引入到矿工不安全行为识别中；基于泛场景理论构建不安全行为特征分析模型，并以225起煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故为例验证模型的有效性；引入概率风险评估模型定量评估不安全行为风险，并以煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故为例验证模型的有效性；引入JD-R模型，丰富行为安全相关理论，构建矿工不安全行为的JD-R模型和个体行为安全的双路径模型；探究不安全行为传播机理，得出示范—模仿、感染—顺从两种不安全行为传播途径；以BBS方法的基本原理和工作流程为基础，结合对矿工不安全行为影响机理的分析构建以识别—评估—干预为循环措施的矿工不安全行为管控模型；选用安全责任落实、安全教育培训等10个组织行为构成要素，构建了煤矿安全组织行为和个体行为交互的系统动力学模型，二者交互过程分为2个阶段：约束指导阶段和反馈改进阶段；构建不安全行为多主体模型，对交互规律进行系统化、程序化的表征；根据建模仿真技术，实现对组织行为与个体行为之间认知的不断反馈，实证分析并验证煤矿安全相关行为特别是不安全行为的特征与规律。通过上述研究，不断夯实行为安全理论基础，研发实用的煤矿安全管理工具，能够提升煤矿安全管理效能，有效控制不安全行为，进而预防煤矿安全事故。