风险应对视角下多目标应急物流动态定位-路径鲁棒优化研究

Large-scale unconventional emergencies bring heavy casualties to humans. They also result in the secondary disasters, such as the disruption of the communication system and the damage of infrastructures. All the damages bring a lot of risk to emergency logistics system and make the emergency rescue work more arduous. To guarantee that the activities of emergency logistics are carried out effectively and the emergency resources are supplied timely, it is necessary to improve the anti-risk capabilities of the emergency logistics decisions. The dynamic location-routing problems of multi-objective emergency logistics with random information are studied with the perspective of risk response. The affections of the emergency logistics risks in different rescue stages to the facility location and routing are analyzed in detailed. The dynamic location-routing problems of two-level facilities considering priorities and multimodal transport with transfer stations are studied with the approaches of mathematical formulation, algorithm design and computer simulation based on robust optimization theory. The solution of facility location and resource transportation for emergency logistics is proposed based on the case analysis. The robustness of the solution is also analyzed. The pointed suggestions are prensented to improve the robustness of decisions made by emergency management agencies and promote the response capability to emergencies of government. The research work of the project will provide theoretical cases for emergency logistics decisions from government.The research will also enrich and develop the theories of emergency management and logistics system, and expand the applications of robust optimization.

大规模非常规突发事件的发生，在给人类带来重大伤亡损失的同时，常引发通讯中断和基础设施受损等次生灾害，使得应急物流系统面临诸多风险，致使应急求援工作更加艰巨。为保证应急物流活动的有效开展和应急资源的及时供应，必须提高应急物流决策的抗风险性。本研究从风险应对视角深入研究随机信息下多目标应急物流动态定位-路径问题，通过剖析不同救援阶段应急物流风险对设施点定位和运输路径安排的影响，以鲁棒优化理论为指导，通过理论建模、算法设计和计算机仿真分别对考虑优先级别的两级动态定位-路径问题和多式联运动态定位-路径问题进行深入研究，在案例分析的基础上提出应急物流设施定位和物资调运方案，分析方案的抗风险鲁棒性，为提高应急管理部门决策的鲁棒性，增强政府的应急反应能力提供有针对性的对策建议。本项目的开展可为实际急物流决策提供理论借鉴，同时有助于丰富和发展应急管理和物流系统理论，拓展鲁棒优化理论的应用范围。

大规模非常规突发事件的发生，在给人类带来重大伤亡损失的同时，常引发通讯中断和基础设施受损等次生灾害，造成设施点失灵，或路网通行能力的下降，使得应急物流系统面临巨大风险，致使应急求援工作更加艰巨。为保证应急物流活动的有效开展和应急资源的及时供应，决策阶段必须考虑风险对应急物流的影响，系统地选择应急设施点和运输方式，安排运输路线。本研究从风险应对视角深入研究不确定信息下多目标应急物流定位-路径问题。采用路径运行时间超期风险、路段通行能力风险和路径复杂性描述应急物流路径风险；根据灾区受灾群众情况、基础设施情况及抗灾情况确定灾区需求优先级别；采用模糊数或区间数描述需求的不确定性，采用随机扰动控制系数描述需求的变化情况；考虑到次生灾害可能致使道路中断，采用车辆与直升机联合运输的多种运输模式；研究目标涉及到运输时间最小、系统总成本最小、需求延迟时间最小、需求物资到达时间最小和救援时间满意度之和最大。以随机规划理论和鲁棒优化理论为指导，通过理论建模、遗传算法设计和计算机仿真分别对考虑路径风险的定位-路径问题和应急设施点失灵风险下定位-路径问题进行深入研究。在随机规划研究中，采用概率描述设施点失灵风险发生的可能性，而在鲁棒优化研究中，采用离散情景和偏差鲁棒的思想描述设施点失灵风险。在案例分析的基础上提出应急物流设施定位和物资调运方案，分析方案的抗风险鲁棒性，为提高应急管理部门决策的鲁棒性，增强政府的应急反应能力提供有针对性的对策建议。本项目的开展可为政府应急物流决策提供理论借鉴，同时有助于丰富和发展应急管理和物流系统理论，拓展鲁棒优化理论的应用范围。