山东沿岸多源风暴潮致灾机理与防灾对策研究

Shandong province has a long coastline. Storm surge disaster is the most notable one of various ocean disasters. The sustainable development of the coastal areas has been severely restricted. Aimed at the sea dike, this project will collect the historic data of both typhoons and cold waves, build a database of typhoon and cold wave storm surges, obtain the multiple sequences of extreme water level, concomitant wave height, wind speed and storm duration, establish a stochastic point process, develop a multivariate theoretical distribution, and estimate the joint return periods of these environmental factors. The motion characteristics and influence factors of overtopping storm flow on the crest and back-slope of sea dikes be discussed. Combining with the multiphase flow calculation techniques and the physical model experiments, the erosion failure and wave conditions of the crest and back-slope of sea dikes, the structure of sea dikes and the quantitative functional relationship among properties of armor sea dikes will be revealed. A active GIS visualization system will be constructed for flood routing and disaster evaluation of storm surge. By simulating the historical processes of storm surge disasters, the submerged range of flood can be obtained. Direct and indirect losses can be calculated, which will establish the foundation for risk assessment. What’s more, for the real-time storm surge, the process of flood routing can be actively displayed, which will help corresponding departments to deal with the disaster. Considering the level of regional economic development in coastal areas of Shandong province, the NPV or IRR equilibrium equation will be set up in the dike project. Risk and sensitivity analysis will be introduced in economic evaluation. A novel sea dike design criteria will be proposed as reference to select optimal design for decision-making departments. The results of this project will provide theoretical basis for the surge prevention and disaster mitigation in the coastal areas of Shandong Province, and provide technical reserves for further revision of the sea dike design code.

山东省海岸线绵长，风暴潮灾害位于海洋灾害之首，制约经济的可持续发展。本项目针对海堤工程，收集台风与寒潮历史资料，通过数值后报，形成风暴潮灾数据库。抽样获得极端风暴潮潮位，及其伴随的波高、风速、潮灾历时的多维序列，建立随机点过程。发展多维理论分布，估计环境要素的联合重现期。探讨风暴潮的越浪流运动特点及影响因素。结合多相流计算和模型试验，揭示堤顶和后坡的侵蚀失效与波况，海堤结构，及护面属性之间的定量关系。构建风暴潮洪水演进及灾情评估动态可视化系统。对历史风暴潮灾害，反演其过程，计算潮灾的直接和间接损失，进行潮灾风险评估；对实时风暴潮灾害，动态显示洪水演进过程，辅助做好防灾对策。考虑山东经济发展水平，以堤防工程的净现值或内部收益率为目标，建立经济评价的平衡方程，并引入风险和灵敏度分析，提出新的海堤设防标准，辅助政府部门决策。研究成果将为山东沿海防潮减灾提供理论依据，为修订海堤设计规范做技术储备。

针对山东沿岸海堤工程，收集台风与寒潮历史资料，通过数值后报，形成风暴潮灾的30年时程数据。抽样获得极端风暴潮潮位，及其伴随的波高、风速、潮灾历时的多维序列，建立随机过程。发展多维理论分布，构建了包括最大熵函数在内的多种边缘分布的联合分布模型，用于估计风暴潮过程中同时出现的海洋环境要素的联合重现期。提出了台风暴潮自然强度的排序方法。探讨风暴潮的越浪流运动特点及影响因素。结合多相流计算和模型试验，揭示堤顶和后坡的侵蚀失效与波况。针对扭王字块护面块体，开展了越浪量、胸墙波浪力的物理模型试验和数值计算研究，提出了适用于工程设计的经验公式。针对开孔沉箱消浪结构，开展了系统的研究，提出了求解作用力的势流理论公式和基于OpenFOAM的数值计算方法，为工程设计提供了技术解决方法。针对特殊功能需求的海岸防护区域，如东营浅海油田防护大堤，通过反演历史风暴潮灾害过程，计算潮灾的直接和间接损失，进行潮灾风险评估；对实时风暴潮灾害，动态显示洪水演进过程，辅助做好防灾对策。考虑山东区域经济发展水平，以堤防工程的净现值或内部收益率为目标，建立经济评价的平衡方程，并引入风险和灵敏度分析，提出新的海堤设防标准，辅助政府部门决策。研究成果将为山东或其他省市的沿海防潮减灾提供理论依据，为修订海堤设计规范做技术储备。