滇西北地区针叶树种迁移态势及其响应机制研究

As global warming as well as more frequent extreme climate occurring, plants and their population distribution patterns have changed significantly in terms of spatial structure, and the plant habitat is a key factor that affects their spatial structure and plant migration. In order to determine the driving factors of plant population migration, we will target three typical natural conifer populations (Pinus yunnanensis Franch., Pinus densata Mast., Picea likiangensis (Franch.) Pritz.) in Northwest Yunnan, to analyze and deduce population migration dynamics based on remote sensing images and spatial and temporal migration models. Meanwhile, we will use Ripely's K function and spatial autocorrelation model to investigate spatial distribution patterns and dynamic laws of study populations with different life history stages and from different elevations and slope aspects. With an understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of study populations, the characteristics of surrounding habitats, coupling with climate factor (precipitation, temperature), geography factor (elevation, slope, aspect and soil), biological factor (species age, population density, intraspecific/interspecific competition and survival) and other factors are used to construct a multi-function model based on hierarchical Bayesian statistical theory, which can be used, to better understand the impact of research population migration response mechanisms, and to simulate and predict migration trends in the future. The purpose of this project is to provide a quantitative analysis of plant populations' migration trend and their response mechanisms, and eventually to provide a scientific basis for protecting forest biological resources and promoting the sustainable utilization of biodiversity in Northwest Yunnan, China.

随着全球温暖化的加剧与极端气候的频繁出现，植物及其种群在空间分布格局上发生了显著的变化，而植物的生境是影响其空间布局与迁移的关键因素。为了明确影响植物种群迁移的驱动因子，本项目于滇西北地区选定三种典型天然针叶树种群（云南松、高山松、丽江云杉）为对象，通过遥感影像与时空格局迁移模型分析、推演其迁移动态，并利用Ripely's K函数与空间自相关模型探讨对象种群在不同生活史阶段的不同海拔与坡向的空间分布格局与规律。在把握该区域内种群时空分布格局的同时，考察其生境特征，耦合气候（降水、气温）、地理（海拔、坡向、坡度、土壤）、生物（树龄、种群密度、种内/间竞争、存活率）等因子依据分层贝叶斯统计原理构建多元函数模型，明确影响对象种群迁移的响应机制，模拟并预测其将来的迁移趋势。本项目旨在定量分析植物种群迁移态势及其响应机制，为滇西北地区的森林生物资源有效保护与促进生物多样性的可持续利用提供科学依据。

随着全球温暖化的加剧与极端气候的频繁出现，植物及其种群在空间分布格局上发生了显著的变化，而植物的生境是影响其空间布局与迁移的关键因素。为了明确影响植物种群迁移的驱动因子，本项目于滇西北地区选定三种典型天然针叶树种群（云南松、高山松、丽江云杉）为对象，通过每木调查与时空格局迁移模型分析、推演其迁移动态，并利用Ripely's K函数与空间自相关模型探讨对象种群在不同生活史阶段的不同海拔与坡向的空间分布格局与规律。在把握该区域内种群时空分布格局的同时，考察其生境特征，耦合气候、地理与生物等因子依据分层贝叶斯统计原理构建多元函数模型，明确影响对象种群迁移的响应机制，模拟并预测其将来的迁移趋势。.通过研究（1）初步明确了滇西北地区64年来的气候因子的时空变化，揭示了该区域气候变化的时空规律，确定了地区气候变化的相关驱动因子。（2）揭示了滇西北针叶树年轮对典型地理环境的响应，初步揭示不同海拔梯度等环境条件下的针叶树对气候变化的响应关系，明确了研究对象树种迁移的响应机制。（3）构建了基于空间自相关的树木生长模型，并利用贝叶斯统计方法，分析了空间自相关及树木间的对称竞争、非对称竞争在树木生长过程中的影响，考察了气候、地理的因子对树木生长的影响。（4）通过调查固定样地内云南松的生长动态，分析了在光环境的影响下，树形结构与环境的关系。（5）探讨了滇西北哈巴雪山景观空间格局特征，通过分析研究，明确了研究对象树种的空间分布与迁移状况，为提高景观格局中各个单元的连通性，把握树木生长态势提供了理论支持。（6）在明确滇西北针叶树种在空间上的分布与生长动态的基础上，调研了云南省乡土树种的空间分异，揭示了相关树种的迁移动态与生长过程。本项目旨在定量分析植物种群迁移态势及其响应机制，为滇西北地区的森林生物资源有效保护与促进生物多样性的可持续利用提供科学依据。