老挝橡胶林地扩展的时空格局及其地缘影响研究

Rubber plantations expansion has been the most dramatic land use and land cover change type in the last decade in Lao PDR, which leads to growing concerns regarding economic, social and environmental impacts. Under the influence of global continuous demand for rubber and regional economic integration, China, Thailand and Vietnam have become the dominant national driving force for the large expansion of rubber. However, there is a lack of reliable information regarding the scale and spatial distribution of rubber expansion and geopolitical impacts of neighboring countries on Lao PDR. With the opportunity of free access to Landsat historical satellite imagery, extracting key information of spectral properties, spatial associations (e.g. context and neighborhood), and geometrical features (e.g. texture) via techniques of the integration of GPS, RS and GIS and developing algorithms for discriminating young and mature rubber plantations, this project will delineate the national spatio-temporal distribution and regional differences of rubber expansion in 1995 (initial stage, first plantations establishment), 2005 (development stage, rubber boom) and 2015 (regulation stage, land concessions for rubber suspension). Then, the impacts of the roles of China, Thailand and Vietnam on rubber expansion in Lao PDR during 1995-2015 will be evaluated on the basis of analysis of demand and supply of rubber and their geopolitical relations trends among four nations, followed by putting forward response strategies for China to cope with the future rubber expansion scenarios of Lao PDR accordingly.

橡胶林地扩展是老挝近十年最剧烈的土地利用/覆被变化类型，对区域经济与生态环境造成了深刻影响。在全球橡胶需求持续增长和区域经济一体化的影响下，中国、泰国和越南成为推动老挝橡胶种植快速发展主要国家因素，然而，目前对于老挝橡胶林地扩展的规模、空间分布及其国别影响还缺乏清晰认识。本项目以Landsat影像共享为契机，基于3S技术挖掘橡胶林地的光谱属性、空间关系和几何特征等重要信息，建立老挝橡胶幼/成林遥感识别方法，并提取1995年（起步期）、2005年（发展期）和2015年（调控期）橡胶林地分布,揭示老挝不同发展阶段橡胶林地扩展的时空格局及地域特征。在此基础上，通过分析老挝、中国、泰国和越南四国橡胶市场供需平衡关系和研判各国地缘政治关系发展态势，评估中-泰-越对老挝近20年橡胶林地扩展的影响程度，提出老挝橡胶林地未来扩展情形下中国拟采取的响应策略。

橡胶林地扩展是老挝近十年最剧烈的土地利用/覆被变化类型，对区域经济与生态环境造成了深刻影响。本项目基于Landsat影像，综合利用橡胶林地的光谱属性、空间关系和几何特征等重要信息，建立老挝橡胶林地遥感识别方法，提取1995年、2005年和2015年老挝橡胶林地空间分布,揭示老挝不同发展阶段橡胶林地扩展的时空格局及地域特征。.研究结果表明，近20年来，老挝各个区域的橡胶种植面积呈持续显著增加趋势，1995年老挝的橡胶种植面积仅为500公顷，到2015年达到34.20万公顷。从空间分布来看，老挝的橡胶种植主要集中在北部，占全国橡胶种植总面积的一半，中部和南部的橡胶种植面积相差不大，分别占全国橡胶种植总面积的22.57%和27.80%。从经营方式来看，其中大规模土地租赁特许方式占49.30%，合作经营方式占 23.7%，小农场主经营方式占 27%。