体系环境下区域旅游经济系统的弹性机制研究--以广西两区一带为例

After 2008, China's tourism industry began to suffer structural imbalance, seriously hampered the sustainable development of tourism economy. Meanwhile, the world economy shocks, international and regional disputes, natural disasters, epidemic diseases, emergencies and other tourism crisis, constantly threat the stable development of the tourism industry. Facing the complex internal and external pressures and manage risk, improving the resilience of tourist economic system has become an important way to achieve sustainable tourism and economic development. Therefore, taking Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, western Guangxi region and Xijiang River Economic Belt as three research samples, this study constructs a system of systems (SoS) conceptual model regional tourist economic system, and utilizes Supernetwork tools to simulate its structure and its capability topology dynamic. On this basis, the study conducts an intelligent computing-based "game experiment"" to assess the dynamic resilience mechanism of the tourism SoS. The study can reveal the underlying causes and the capability foundation to run sustainable tourism economic, thus assist the tourism economy and policy simulation, tourism economy monitoring and early warning, tourism crisis management, emergency impact assessment, industrial policy assessment.

2008年以后，我国旅游产业结构不平衡问题开始凸显，严重制约了旅游经济的可持续发展。同时，世界经济震荡、国际地区争端、自然灾害、流行性疾病、突发事件等旅游危机事件，都对旅游业的稳定发展造成威胁。面对复杂的内外生压力及管理风险，提高旅游经济系统弹性（Resilience）成为实现旅游经济可持续发展的重要途径。因此，本研究以广西两区一带（广西北部湾经济区、西江经济带和桂西资源富集区）为3个研究样本，构建区域旅游经济系统的"体系"（System of systems）概念模型，以超网络（Supernetwork）工具模拟其拓扑结构与能力动力学机制，在此基础上通过智能计算"弈实验" 评估旅游经济系统的动态弹性机制。研究对于揭示旅游经济运行可持续性的深层原因及能力基础具有重要意义，可为旅游经济运行与政策仿真、旅游经济监测与预警、旅游危机管理、突发事件影响评估、工具性产业政策评估等提供依据。

为探索在复杂产业环境中提高旅游经济运行可持续性的弹性（Resilience）机理，本项目引入“体系”和超网络理论，测度与分析旅游经济系统的体系特性，模拟计算旅游经济体系的超网络拓扑结构与能力动力学过程，进而通过智能计算“弈实验”研究旅游经济体系演化过程中的动态弹性机制及弹性强化方案。根据研究计划，项目建立了广西两区一带3个研究样本的旅游经济体系空间多Agent超网络模型，明确了体系的网络拓扑结构、演化机理及微观主体的影响，解释了旅游产业的超网络能力动力学机制，并提出基于能力规划（Capability-based planning，CBP）的旅游经济弹性强化方案。研究对于揭示旅游经济运行可持续性的深层原因及能力基础具有重要意义，可为旅游经济运行与政策仿真、旅游经济监测与预警工具性产业政策评估等提供依据。