基于行为分析的景区人流模拟与空间优化—GPS与问卷结合的研究

The raising calling for high resolution spatial-temporal behavior analysis to better support people-oriented scenic area planning and management is appealing, which is hard to be fulfilled through survey in traditional single way. This project attempts to explore a new research approach through integrating the newly-emerged GPS tracking techniques with questionnaire survey, which helps to combine both precise digital footprint and subjective cognition of single visitor together. Based on that, individual behavior modeling and simulation method can be utilized for better space optimization of scenic areas. The main contents of the project includes following steps. The first is building up the GPS spatial-temporal behavior data model (GPS-STB Data Model). After that, Adopting discrete choice model to analyze the behavior mechanism of destination choice and route choice will be done. It is then possible to use scenarios， GIS optimization model and Multi-agent simulation method to evaluate and fulfill the proposed plans of space optimization. Finally, the GPS-based Spatial-temporal Behavior Curve Library (GPS-STB Curve Library) and general simulation platform will be provided. On the one hand, this project attributes to in-depth exploration of high resolution spatial-temporal behavior analysis from theoretical perspective. On the other hand, this project also bring significance for the sustainable resolving of the problems like crowds of flow, poor travel route design, irrationality of scenic areas developement, etc.

以人为本的景区规划管理日益需要对旅游者的时空行为开展精细化的分析与预测，但这是传统单一途径调研所难以满足的。课题探索GPS追踪技术与传统问卷调查相结合的研究途径，即发挥GPS客观揭示时空行为特点，又发挥问卷在揭示主观个体和认知层面信息的优势，进而实现面向个体的精细化行为建模与景区人流仿真。项目主要研究内容包括：通过调研建立GPS时空行为数据模型；基于离散选择模型揭示旅游者园区和路径选择行为作用机理；通过情景规划思想、GIS优化模型和多主体行为仿真的技术路线实现景区空间优化方案的评估和空间落地；最终构建多类型景区案例地分析的旅游者时空行为曲线库和通用人流模拟平台。本研究有望从理论上对游客时空行为建模的精细化进行深入探讨，在实践上提供解决节点的人流拥挤、旅游线路设计缺乏依据、景区开发不合理等问题的分析平台。

课题探索GPS追踪技术与传统问卷调查相结合的研究途径，即发挥GPS客观揭示时空行为特点，又发挥问卷在揭示主观个体和认知层面信息的优势，进而实现面向个体的精细化行为建模与景区人流仿真。项目主要研究内容包括：通过调研建立GPS时空行为数据模型；基于离散选择模型揭示旅游者园区和路径选择行为作用机理；通过情景规划思想、GIS优化模型和多主体行为仿真的技术路线实现景区空间优化方案的评估和空间落地；最终构建多类型景区案例地分析的旅游者时空行为曲线库和通用人流模拟平台。项目重要研究结果为利用GPS和问卷数据，探索了旅游者行为特征、行为精度、行为冲突、行为匹配、行为关系、行为模式、行为机理、行为评估、行为调控，系列成果以专著《基于GPS的景区旅游者行为研究——以鼓浪屿为例》出版，并获2019年文化和旅游部优秀成果二等奖。本项目从理论上对游客时空行为建模的精细化进行深入探讨，在实践上提供解决节点的人流拥挤、旅游线路设计缺乏依据、景区开发不合理等问题的分析平台。