中国证券市场波动与控制研究

We focus on the volatility of Chinese stock market in this project,applying the positive and normative approaches to describe the general features of China stock market volatility and analysis the factors underlying them. We provide evidence to show the relevance of business cycles, monetary and fiscal policies to the china stock market volatility..Within the EMH scheme, we also study the relationship between information.disclosure regulations and market volatility. The main results include:(1).government policies and market information have significant effects on.stock market volatility;(2) The monetary policy adopted recent years.fostered the developments of stock market, but the central bank’s.successive interest rates downside adjustments does not orient the saving.deposits to the stock market;(3) Government’s interferences increase the.market volatility;(4) Both the market fluctuation and the investors’.investment philosophy are irrational. Referring the oversea practice, we.evaluate the risk control system of china stock market and provide an.alternative reliable and sensitive risk supervision system based on the.technical indicators. We suggest that regulators should take effective.actions to improve the corporate governance of listing companies and the.stock market trading mechanism, foster security analysts and4institutional investors, strengthen the information disclosure regulations and adopt severer punishment. The research could be helpful for the China stock market regulators.to discern the sources of market volatility and adopt effective measures.to control abnormal fluctuations and diminish the market risks.

对中国证券市场的价格和数量波动进行实证研究，重点考察由于信息披露和宏观政策变化对证券市场造成的影响，在此基础上，借鉴其他国家的经验，提出健全我国证券市场监管体系，提高信息披露质量，减少内幕交易和操纵市场以及改善宏观政策传导机制，以控制市场异常波动的意见和建议，为政策制定与执行提供决策支持。.