农业经济发展、农户行为与农业面源污染困境摆脱的协同机制研究

Agricultural non-point source pollution is the result of the double effects of natural and social economic factors. At present, most of the studies on non-point source pollution focused on the natural mechanism from the perspectives of hydrology, rainfall runoff，soil erosion，contaminant transport ect.. Technology and engineering control are mainly adopted in the control of agricultural non-point source pollution. Agricultural development and farmers’ production behavior are also closely related to the non-point source pollution. From the macro level, non-point source pollution control will be studied, taken the agricultural economic development and its features into account, to grasp the overall trend of the development of agriculture and the change of non-point source pollution, the growth of agricultural economy and the effect of environmental pollution. From the middle level, agricultural planting structure and agricultural land layout optimization, together with the sensitivity of agricultural land source pollution and the suitability of crops, will be analyzed to guide farmers from the policy in the agricultural production. From the micro level, farmers’ decision-making behaviors of fertilization, livestock and poultry manure treatment and biogas utilization will be examined. This study, with the help of survey and evaluation of participating farmers, scenario analysis and simulation, structural equation modeling and econometrics, taking typical basin for example, analyses the relationship of agricultural economic development, farmers’ environmental behavior and non-point source pollution so as to construct agricultural non-point source pollution control mechanism that the market, the government and farmers all participate in.

农业面源污染是自然与社会经济因素双重作用下的结果。当前，对面源污染形成侧重于从水文、降雨径流、土壤侵蚀、污染物迁移等自然机理的研究；对面源污染调控主要采用技术与工程控制。农业发展、农户生产行为也与面源污染的产生密切相关。面源污染的调控须从宏观层面将农业经济发展与面源污染的特征联系起来进行综合考察，以把握农业发展与面源污染变化的总体趋势以及农业经济增长的环境污染效应；从中观层面分析农业种植结构和农用地布局优化，结合农业用地面源污染的敏感性和农作物的适宜性，从政策上引导农户农业生产；从微观视角对农户的施肥决策行为、畜禽养殖粪尿处理方式与沼气利用的决策行为进行剖析。本研究以典型流域为例，借助参与式农户调查评估、情景分析与模拟、结构方程模型和计量经济学等方法，对农业经济发展、农户环境行为与面源污染关系进行研究，试图构建市场、政府与农户参与农业面源污染治理机制。

我国农业发展取得化肥、农药的过量施用、不合理的农业产业结构与空间布局、农村环境管理主体缺位以及农业环境管理政策不完善皆是导致农村面源污染严重的主要原因。农业经济发展方式的转变、农业环境管理制度和政策的有效供给是改变农业和农村生态环境二元结构的有效途径。客观评价区域农业经济增长的质量，切实解决中国农业发展中面临的环境污染等突出问题，还原农业生态文明，结果可为重庆和大理农业生态治理提供科学依据。. 运用EKC曲线对江西省11个地级市农作物生产过程中化肥、农药投入量作为农业面源污染指标与农业总产值之间的关系进行模拟。采用非径向、非角度的SBM-DEA 模型，结合方向性距离函数引入影子价格测算了重庆三峡库区农业生态环境效率及边际减排成本。以洱海海西仁里邑村作为研究区，选择区内具有代表性的两种土地利用模式，传统“稻—蒜”轮作模式和乡村生态旅游模式，构建适用于两种土地利用模式的评价指标体系，对比分析两种土地利用模式的生态效益、经济效益、社会效益和综合效益。. 农业面源污染与农业生产产值的关系符合环境库兹涅茨曲线的假说，但并非传统唯一的倒“U”型，而是呈现出新型的倒“N”型形态。2003－2015 年期间，重庆三峡库区农业生态环境效率趋于稳步提升态势，全样本期投入无效率和非期望产出无效率平均值分别为27.3%和24.7%。农业生态环境效率较高的地区集中在都市核心区和库尾都市外围区；而库尾低山丘陵区、库中平行岭谷区、腹地山地丘陵区和腹地外围山地区的农业生态环境效率相对较低。从效率损失的原因看，化肥、农药的过度投入及其相应的逆生态环境效应表现突出。乡村生态旅游土地利用模式在生态效益、经济效益、社会效益以及综合效益上全面优于传统“稻—蒜”轮作土地利用模式，这表明前者比后者更适合在研究区发展。乡村生态旅游模式比传统“稻—蒜”轮作模式更好的达到了生态效益、经济效益、社会效益的统一。. 数据主要来源于相关省份的统计局、环保局数据、农户问卷调查和实验数据