基于3S技术的地形复杂区域总辐射空间模拟研究

Xinjiang region is very rich in solar energy resources. Because of complex terrain and diverse surface conditions, there is a great disparity in astronomical amount of radiation distribution. It will have important theoretical significance and application value to model the solar radiation and understand the spatial distribution for the development and utilization of agricultural and solar energy resources in Xinjiang region. With the upgrading needs for modern meteorological business and higher requirements of service, the fine pictures and the credibility of localized spatial simulation has been paid more and more attention to the credibilities of spacilization of meteorological elements, so the products with mathematical space interpolation have been accepted less and less. On the basis of previous studies, astronomical radiation will be calculated by the distributed model with complex topography and clearly physical meaning using DEM data (500m × 500m) in this study. Meanwhile, percentage of sunshine will be calculated with corrected MODIS cloud cover data to make up the discontinuous of meteorological observation data. Global radiation model will be built based on 3s technics combined with two kinds of data above and the spatial modeling of daily, monthly and yearly global radiation in Xinjiang will be realized. At last, the rationality of the results will be inspected and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of global radiation will be analyzed.

新疆区域太阳能资源十分丰富，但同时地形复杂，下垫面条件多样，使得天文辐射量空间分布及其不均，对新疆区域太阳辐射进行合理的精细化模拟，了解辐射空间分布，对农业和太阳能资源开发利用具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。随着现代气象业务需求的提升和服务质量的更高要求，气象要素空间化的可信度越来越受到人们的重视，以往通过纯数学空间插值的产品逐渐不被人们所认可。因此，本项目拟在前人研究的基础上，使用500m×500m 分辨率的DEM数据，利用具有明确物理意义的复杂地形分布式模型计算天文辐射。同时引入订正后的MODIS云量资料计算日照百分率，弥补气象站点观测资料的不连续。将两种数据结合，建立基于3S集成技术的总辐射模型，实现新疆区域日、月、年总辐射的空间化模拟,对计算结果合理性进行检验，对区域内总辐射时空分布特征进行分析。

新疆太阳能资源十分丰富，由于复杂的地形和下垫面条件，使得地面接收的太阳辐射空间分布及其不均，本项目将具有明确物理意义的天文辐射分布式理论模型与总辐射气候学经验模型相结合，引入了FY-2G遥感总云量来计算日尺度日照百分率的基础上，建立了基于3S技术的地表太阳总辐射计算模型，对新疆范围内的天文辐射量、可照时间及总辐射的精细化空间分布进行了分析，得出了以下结论：①新疆年可照时数平均为4239h，春季1165h，夏季1286h，秋季964h，冬季823h，在三大山脉中由坡度、坡向和地形开阔度对可照时间造成的影响都非常明显；②新疆年天文辐射量大致以天山为界，天山以南区域的年天文辐射量高于10000 MJ·m-2，天山以北低于9750 MJ·m-2，四季的天文辐射量差异显著；③对FY-2G总云量进行最优重采样后建立的遥感日照百分率模型具有较好的稳定性，对新疆区域日照百分率的空间分布有较为准确的表达；④新疆年地表太阳总辐射整体表现为自西北向东南逐渐增加的空间分布特征，南疆盆地高于北疆盆地，天山山区西部为低值中心，高值区域在东疆盆地，超过6000MJ·m-2。冬半年与夏半年总辐射由经向性分布转向纬向分布，主要是气流和地形共同影响的结果。