儒家文化与过度储蓄：微观机理、实证检验与宏观政策研究

Culture influencing saving is a basic consensus, which can partly explain the sharply conflicting saving behaviors between eastern and western countries, however, the related threoretical and empircal supports are very limited. Time inconsistency leads to a consumption deviation from the original optimistic consumption plan, and comes over-consumption or under- consumption. This project adopts the time inconsistency analysis frame,and gives explanation to Chinese residents' over-saving from the aspect of Confucian culture: Firstly, we conclude the effect from culture to residents'consumption as self-control bias, then we build up a hyperbolic discounting model which contains culture and consumption/savings. Secondly, with the data from experiment and questionnaire survey, we know Chinese's unique consumption recognition attitude, and acoording to Chinese circumstance, set parameters for the hyperbolic discounting model, analysing the mechanism of over-saving that influenced by Confucian culture.Through the solving process of pre-commitment strategy and subgame perfect Nash equilibrium to explore the methods to correct the bias of under-consumption. Thirdly, according to the literature in various subjects, we search for a suitable proxy variables of culture which is able to testify the explanation power of (Confucian)culture to individual, provincial and national saving difference. This project expects an leading and pioneering research result which is able to enrich and develop the traditional saving theory, and facilitate advances in expanding domestic demand policy based on the angle of intervention of consumption culture and consumption attitude.

文化影响储蓄相当于一个基本共识，可部分解释当前尖锐对立的东西方国家储蓄行为，但相关的理论与实证支持却非常有限。时间不一致问题会导致消费者实际消费偏离原最优计划，形成消费过度或不足。本项目采用该分析框架，为儒家文化与过度储蓄的宏观关联分析提供微观基础：1）将文化对居民消费心理的影响归纳为自我控制认知偏差，并据此建立容纳文化与储蓄分析的双曲贴现模型；2）利用实验及问卷数据勾勒中国居民独特的消费认知特征，并据此对双曲贴现模型基于中国情境进行参数设定，解析儒家文化影响下居民过度自我控制导致过度储蓄的形成机制，并通过求解预先承诺策略与子博弈精炼均衡策略来探讨对消费不足的纠正措施；3）根据多学科领域文献搜求合适的文化代理变量，验证（儒家）文化对个体、省份、国家间的储蓄率差异的解释力。本研究具有前沿性和开创性，将为传统储蓄理论提供重要补充，推动基于消费文化及消费心态干预视角的中国扩大内需政策的技术创新。

2008年金融危机严重制约了全球一体化进程，国家之间体制、文化差异的影响日渐凸显，日益受到重视。其中，文化对储蓄的影响相当于一个基本共识，可部分解释当前尖锐对立的东西方国家储蓄行为，但相关的理论与实证支持却非常有限。. 本课题利用多个数据库，在跨国层面和中国跨省域层面验证了文化尤其是儒家文化对居民储蓄行为的影响，分析了其渠道效应和调节效应；在理论层面分析了文化影响居民经济决策行为的逻辑和机制； 并进一步测试了文化及宗教与居民幸福感、金融资产选择、经济增长等的关系及其作用机制。. 一方面，本课题拓展了文化影响消费/储蓄的分析框架与体系，并填补了国内研究的相关空白。另一方面，本课题丰富了文化金融的研究视角和方法，为我国消费和储蓄问题研究提供了新的观察视角。