水沙变化对黄河河口湿地生态环境脆弱性演变的效应研究

Runoff and sediment fundamental evolution resulting from the changes of the upper and middle reaches environment conditions is the dominant factor in driving the fragile ecological environment changes in the Yellow River estuary wetland, which makes a huge impact on the downstream of the Yellow River and the estuary wetland, ecological security and resources environment sustainable use. On the basis of impact analysis and simulation of evolution characteristics on the fragile ecological environment system changes from the downstream runoff and sediment elements in the estuary wetland of fragile ecological environment, the research is intended to build a coupled evolution model of regional runoff and sediment factors is linked to the fragile ecological environment system changes, to analyze evolution mechanism of the fragile ecosystems derived by runoff and sediment factors in the Yellow River estuary wetland. At the same time, a catastrophe model is built based on the information entropy and catastrophe theory, and be applied to evaluate evolution mechanism in the region of fragile ecological environment, to study the fragile ecological environment mutation characteristics and variation regular of vulnerability. The project aim of the study is to try the fragile ecological environment change research transition from the conceptual model to a dynamic model, to explore the effect of fragile ecological environment changes by changes of the runoff and sediment elements in the Yellow River estuary wetland, to reveal the ecological environment vulnerability mechanism driven by runoff and sediment elements, to clarify the mechanism, critical condition and variation evolution of the regional fragile ecological environment, to provide a theoretical basis for the sound development of the ecological environment and sustainable use of water resources in the Yellow River and the estuary wetland.

黄河上中游环境变化与工程运用致使下游水沙变化是驱动黄河河口湿地生态环境脆弱性演变的主导因素，其对黄河下游及河口湿地的生态安全与资源、环境的可持续利用产生巨大影响。在分析水沙条件驱动河口湿地生态环境脆弱性演变程度与特性模拟的基础上，本项目拟构建黄河下游水沙条件演变与河口湿地脆弱生态环境系统变迁关系耦合模型，分析黄河河口湿地生态环境脆弱性演变的水沙驱动机理；同时，基于信息熵和突变理论构建河口湿地脆弱生态环境突变模型，研究湿地脆弱生态环境突变特性与脆弱性变化规律。项目研究旨在尝试将湿地脆弱生态环境系统演变研究从“概念模型”向“动力模型”过渡，探讨黄河下游水沙条件变化对湿地生态环境脆弱性变迁的效应，揭示生态环境系统脆弱性受水沙变化驱动的机理，阐明湿地生态环境脆弱性演变的机制、临界条件与变化规律，为黄河河口湿地生态环境良性发展与资源、环境可持续利用提供理论基础。

黄河上中游环境变化与工程运用致使下游水沙变化是驱动黄河河口湿地生态环境脆弱性演变的主导因素，其对黄河下游及河口湿地的生态安全与资源、环境的可持续利用产生巨大影响。在分析水沙条件驱动河口湿地生态环境脆弱性演变程度与特性模拟的基础上，本项目拟构建黄河下游水沙条件演变与河口湿地脆弱生态环境系统变迁关系耦合模型，分析黄河河口湿地生态环境脆弱性演变的水沙驱动机理；同时，基于信息熵和突变理论构建河口湿地脆弱生态环境突变模型，研究湿地脆弱生态环境突变特性与脆弱性变化规律。项目研究旨在尝试将湿地脆弱生态环境系统演变研究从“概念模型”向“动力模型”过渡，探讨黄河下游水沙条件变化对湿地生态环境脆弱性变迁的效应，揭示生态环境系统脆弱性受水沙变化驱动的机理，阐明湿地生态环境脆弱性演变的机制、临界条件与变化规律，为黄河河口湿地生态环境良性发展与资源、环境可持续利用提供理论基础。