基于混合建模的高拱坝施工动态仿真与优化控制研究

The key scientific problems demanding prompt solution which exist in the construction process of high arch dam are system macro and micro analysis, hybrid modeling and simulation, multi-objective optimization and decision making. Firstly, the complex system decomposition coordination mechanism based on macro and micro scale of high arch dam construction complex system is revealed. Secondly, combining the advantages of the multi-agent model which can describe the individual behavior from the microscopic level and the system dynamics model which can quantitatively analyze the complex causal relationship between the system variables from the macroscopic level, the hybrid modeling strategy of high arch dam construction process simulation is established. Thirdly, the method of dynamic simulation and global sensitivity analysis of high arch dam construction process based on hybrid modeling is proposed. Finally, based on dynamic simulation, a multi-objective optimization and multi-attribute decision-making method for time-cost- intensity equilibrium is put forward, which provides scientific basis for optimization and dynamic control of high arch dam construction process. This research will break through the limitations of the single modeling method with discrete event simulation which is hard to effectively characterize the real high arch dam construction system, and overcome the shortcoming of the existing multi-objective optimization model and solving algorithm. It will solve the application of basic scientific problems in the study of high arch dam construction dynamic fine simulation and optimization control. This project has important theoretical significance, as well as strong engineering application value.

针对高拱坝施工仿真与优化中存在的具有挑战性、亟待解决的关键科学问题：系统宏微观分析问题、混合建模与仿真问题、多目标优化与决策问题，研究揭示基于宏微观多尺度的高拱坝施工复杂系统分解协调机制；结合多智能体模型可以从微观层面精细描述系统个体行为以及系统动力学模型可以从宏观层面定量分析系统变量之间复杂因果关系的优点，构建集成多智能体与系统动力学模型的高拱坝施工过程仿真混合建模策略；提出基于混合建模的高拱坝施工过程动态仿真与参数全局敏感性分析方法；研究基于动态仿真的高拱坝施工工期-成本-强度均衡的多目标优化及多属性决策方法，为大坝施工过程优化与动态控制提供科学依据。本研究突破了目前单一离散事件仿真建模方法难以真实有效刻画高拱坝施工复杂系统的局限性，弥补了现有多目标优化模型及求解算法的不足，解决了高拱坝施工动态精细仿真与优化控制研究中存在的应用基础科学问题，具有重要的理论意义及工程价值。

高拱坝建设过程是复杂的系统工程，受施工组织、气象条件、设备资源等多因素影响，存在坝体施工进度动态仿真与优化控制关键技术难题。本项目综合系统分析、仿真建模、人工智能、可视化等先进技术手段，深入开展了基于混合建模的高拱坝施工动态仿真与优化控制理论及方法研究，解决了高拱坝施工动态精细仿真与优化控制研究中存在的应用基础科学问题，为我国高拱坝工程又好又快建设提供了理论依据与技术支撑。本项目研究揭示了基于宏微观多尺度的高拱坝施工复杂系统分解协调机制，提出了基于机器视觉的高拱坝施工机械运行参数智能分析方法，建立了高拱坝施工仿真参数智能动态更新模型，构建了集成多智能体与系统动力学的高拱坝施工仿真混合建模策略，研发了基于SLAM优化的高拱坝施工仿真移动增强现实可视化分析技术。依托本项目培养了中青年学术骨干1名，硕博士研究生5名，发表高水平学术论文16篇，授权专利3项，获省部级科技进步一等奖1项。本项目所提到的理论方法在我国金沙江乌东德、雅砻江杨房沟等多座高拱坝工程中成功应用，为我国高拱坝工程高标准建设提供了重要科学依据，为高坝工程建设智能化发展发挥了积极作用。