废弃柱式采空区塌陷风险性评价理论和应用研究

There are a large number of abandoned pillar goafs in our country. Their subsidence has the characteristic of sudden, covertness, long-term and harmfulness, which has harmful to people's live and property. Therefore, it has significant theoretical and practical meaning to study the collabse risk assessment method of abandoned pillar goafs. This project will establish the stability evaluation method of abandoned pillar goafs which is the coordination action of pillar property, mining size, strata structure and geological environment based on combining with monitoring the deformation history of abandoned goaf by DInSAR and GIS spatial analysis, overlying strata structure and geological environment ,and studying deeply the subsidence mechanism, law and sudden collapse, pillar's instability condition , at the same time, the law and conditions of sinkhole and roof collapse of pillar goaf can be obtained ,which can be used to forecast reliably the location of sinkhole. Moreover, the method of determination the location of abandoned goaf and the technology of identification sudden collapse will be established based on multi-source information fusion, which can provide a way to detect unknown mining area and determine forewarning of sudden collapse; At last, the collabse risk assessment method of pillar goaf will be established in view of multi-source information fusion, which can provide an technical support to assess accurately the security of pillar goaf and take reasonable measures to avoid and alleviate the hazard of abandoned pillar goaf on buildings and people's lives and property.

我国柱式废弃采空区量大面广，其塌陷具有突陷性、隐蔽性、长期性和危害性，给人民生命财产带来严重威胁。研究柱式采空区塌陷风险性评价方法具有重要的理论和实际意义。本项目拟通过DInSAR等技术获取废弃采空区变形历史，结合GIS空间分析能力和覆岩结构、地质采矿环境，在深入研究废弃柱式采空区塌陷机理、规律、突陷条件的基础上，构建基于矿柱特性、采空区尺寸、覆岩结构、地质采矿环境协同作用的矿柱失稳条件及稳定性评价方法，明确柱式采空区顶板突陷、塌陷坑出现规律及条件，准确预测可能出现的塌陷坑位置；形成基于多源信息融合的废弃采空区位置确定方法及突陷辨识技术，为发现不明采空区区域、确定突陷前兆提供技术方法；创建基于多源信息融合的柱式采空区塌陷风险性评价方法，为准确评价柱式采空区安全性，采取合理技术措施，避免和减轻废弃柱式采空区塌陷对人民生命财产、各种建构筑物造成的危害提供技术支撑。

废弃柱式采空区塌陷具有隐蔽性、突发性和危害性，对柱式采空区塌陷风险评价方法进行研究，具有重要的理论和实用价值。本项目通过理论研究、现场调研、物理模拟和数值模拟，重点研究了柱式采空区煤柱应力与地形地貌、采空区（盘区）大小、开采深度、开采厚度、采留比等的关系，建立了相应的经验计算式；基于节理损伤概念，建立了含节理岩体强度评价的理论模型，为节理岩体煤柱强度确定提供了理论方法；构建了基于梁板理论的柱式采空区顶板力学模型，分析了变形机理，给出了顶板塌陷风险评估方法，为评价采空区顶板塌陷风险奠定了基础；针对煤柱剥离影响煤柱长期稳定性的现实，构建了煤柱剥离量计算方法及煤柱稳定性的评价方法。集成上述研究成果，建立了柱式采空区塌陷风险评价方法及塌陷时间估算方法，通过对榆林矿区房柱式开采采空区的评价，证明了方法的可靠性和实用性，具有重要的理论意义和广泛的实用价值。同时，形成了声发射获取煤柱塌陷前兆、InSAR技术监测地表变形、发现不明采空区和进行塌陷后灾害评估的方法，为防止柱式采空区塌陷风险、评估塌陷灾害奠定了理论基础。