基于流域-城市雨洪生态调控模拟的海绵城市适应性规划方法研究

In recent years, many cities in China suffered waterlogging disasters after the heavy rainfall, which has become one of the core issues in the new-type urbanization construction. To tackle this problem radically, this research attempts to adopt the complexity theory as the research paradigm and choose the ecological regulation and control of the basin and its surrounding cities as the start point. Through viewing flooding mitigation as a complex process, this research will systematically analyze following three points：1) the dynamic water cycle caused by flooding in mountain cities, 2) the interaction between disaster-bearing environments and disaster-inducing factors, and 3) the effects of ecological regulation on disaster risk mitigation and adaptation in river basin regions. Based on the GIS data mining and statistical modeling techniques, this research will employ comprehensive research techniques such as big data and remote sensing to develop a methodological framework with a series of modellings and simulations for disaster risk mitigation and adaptation. This framework integrates ecological regulation of water cycle in the river basin regions, construction of urban green infrastructure achieving low impact development, and optimization of multi-functional spaces for human behaviors. Furthermore, according to the requirements of different stages of planning, the research will build different hydrological models and their ecological control simulation system of three cities in the hilly areas of eastern China, which are in different planning stages of the sponge-city construction. What is more, the adaptive planning method of the sponge cities in multi-spatial scales and effectiveness evaluation of the disaster reduction planning under various scenarios would be proposed. The purpose of this study is to explore a crucial academic growth point between the urban and rural planning science and system science, ecology, hydrology, and geographic information science. As well, the research would emphasis the integration among these fields. It is also expected to establish a new theory and method system of adaptive planning of sponge cities so as to guide and promote the improvement of the planning and construction of the sponge cities.

近年来我国城市内涝灾害日趋严重。然而，目前的海绵城市建设大多仅局限于城市规划区，难以有效解决流域暴雨下的建成区内涝问题。鉴于此，引入复杂适应系统理论，首先对城市内涝形成的流域孕灾环境与城市致灾因子的相互作用模式进行系统性研究。进而，以改进型SCS和CA水文模型为基础，运用大数据和遥感信息，在GIS数据挖掘和统计建模技术支持下，创建一种集流域水生态调控、城市绿色设施减灾和人群活动功能空间优化三方面耦合的适应性模拟方法及其关键技术；进一步以三个处于不同规划阶段的山地城市为实证对象，通过建立流域-城市雨洪生态调控模拟验证系统，发展具有全过程、多空间尺度的海绵城市适应性规划编制方法，并开展多情景规划减灾评估研究。本研究旨在探寻城乡规划学与系统科学、生态学、水文学、地理信息科学之间相互交叉的学术生长点, 有望建立一种新的海绵城市适应性规划理论和方法体系来助推我国新一轮海绵城市规划与建设水平的提高。

针对近十年来我国海绵城市建设难以有效解决流域暴雨下的建成区内涝问题，引入CAS理论，从流域-区域-城区雨洪生态系统调控理论、海绵城市规划实施过程中的减灾效应评估及优化修编方法三个层面展开研究。经过四年的系统性研究，（1）在理论上，构建了基于流域洪涝灾害系统、区域经济社会系统和城乡人居系统三者耦合的流域—城市洪涝灾害适应性调控理论框架及其海绵规划方法论。 (2) 在方法上，针对传统城市水文模型对管网、水文数据要求高的痛点，通过自主创新，构建了具有多主体适应内涵的 SCS-CA 的水文产汇流模型，利用 CA 模型和 BP 神经网络等技术构建了基于 SCS-CN 模型的分布式雨洪时空全过程栅格化模拟体系、开创性地构建基于 RNN 神经网络的“长汀 雨型”、初步构建了一套海绵城市建设适宜性综合评估模型，研发了适用于海绵城市规划与实施全过程的可视化雨洪模拟集成系统，建立了融合城乡孕灾环境和承灾体的调控分析、内涝减灾效应评估的规划支持方法。(3) 应用上，结合三个处于不同海绵城市规划阶段的实证城市案例，研发可推广的海绵城市规划支持系统原型，形成了一套基于流域-城市雨洪生态调控的海绵城市总体规划和详细设计评估方法体系 。本项目借鉴复杂系统科学范式，实现了在城乡规划复杂性基础理论、模拟方法和适应性规划编制技术创新应用等三个层面上取得了开创性突破。本项目理论方法成果可为国家新开始的“十四五”海绵城市专项规划编制或修编提供了重要的理论与方法依据，为基于雨洪生态韧性与居民满意度的国土空间规划的总规修编和海绵城市等专项规划编制提供了新的分析范式。