丘陵山区农地生态转型的发生机制与调控策略研究

The increase of farm labor opportunity cost and the rural household livelihoods diversification has provided the sloping land impetus for the ecological transition in the hilly and mountainous regions. But agricultural subsidies from the government and many other factors may prevent the occurrence of this phenomenon. Ecological transition of agricultural land will be how to develop? For the considerations of farmland protection, ecological security and farmers’ sustainable livelihoods, what strategies should be formulated by the government to regulate the spatial pattern ecological transition of agricultural land? .This study aims in the Ganzhou region, a typical hilly region, where water and soil erosion is serious and the contradictions between the population growth and land resources are quite prominent. Using the methods of the questionnaire and interview, spatial statistics and welfare economics, this study will analyze the impacts of governmental and farmer behaviors on land use ecological transition. Then we will conjecture the possibility that marginal farmland converted to forests or other land use type under the changes of the labor price, subsidy policy, agriculture and forestry product price in the study area. Dynamic mechanisms of land use ecological transition are to be explored by the multi-agent system consisting of the governmental macro-control behaviors, farmer micro-constrain behaviors, and suitability behaviors of arable land..Based on this, the spatial explicit model of land use ecological transition is to be constructed via GIS including Multi-agent system layer, environmental factors layer, and cellular automata layer. We will simulate the land use pattern under the different policy situations, including subsidy policy, cultivated land protection, conversion of cropland to forest, industrial transformation. Regulation effects of land use ecological transition are to be evaluated from the spatial continuity, ecological security, and cultivated land protection. After that we will put forward some suggestions on the land use transition for local government. In a word, it is meaningful and helpful to enrich the spatial strategies of land management and to maintain the sustainable development in the hilly region.

务农机会成本上升和农户生计多样化为丘陵山区坡耕地生态转型提供了动力,但来自政府的农业补贴、耕地保护等政策因素又会阻止这一现象的发生，丘陵山区农地生态转型过程如何发展？出于粮食安全、生态安全和农户可持续生计的发展目标，政府应制定何种策略去调控农地生态转型空间格局？.因此，本项目以水土流失严重的南方丘陵山区——赣州市为研究对象，借助问卷调查、空间统计学和多智能体系统（MAS）分析方法，从农户的微观决策行为（效用最大化）、政府的宏观调控行为（福利最大化）以及耕地环境条件（区位、地形、土壤）等构成的系统耦合视角，揭示丘陵山区农地生态转型的发生机制。然后构建农地生态转型的MAS模型,从空间上模拟不同调控策略（农业补贴、耕地保护、生态扶贫、产业转型等）情景下的农地利用格局，并从空间连续性、水土流失防护、农地保护度和农户收入等方面评估调控效果，为制定合理的策略提供学术依据，有利于丰富土地管理的空间策略。

本研究以南方丘陵山区为研究对象，借助问卷调查、空间统计、空间分析、计量经济和多智能体系统（MAS）分析方法，从农户的微观决策行为、政府的宏观调控行为以及耕地环境等构成的系统耦合视角，揭示丘陵山区农地生态转型的发生机制；利用农户模型预测不同情景下农地生态转型的可能性，分析转型过程中涉及的利用相关者，厘定各利益相关者之间在农地生态转型过程中的利益冲突；从空间上模拟生态安全格局下农地生态转型的调控格局，为制定合理的策略提出学术依据，有利于丰富土地管理的空间策略。主要完成的成果如下：.（1）农地生态转型的基础理论研究：.①界定了耕地利用生态转型的内涵，明确了它的概念；.②通过回顾国内外耕地休耕制度和梳理相关农户休耕响应研究，综述了在休耕过程中农户微观决策行为的影响因素和不同国家或地区休耕制度模式；.③系统地梳理了农业可持续集约化的主要研究成果，明晰了农业可持续集约化的理论研究框架。.（2）丘陵山区农地生态转型的发生机制研究：.④基于地租理论，构建了一个空间显性经济学模型探究多尺度（农户、景观、区域）农地边际化的驱动机制；.⑤从微观尺度分析了耕地休养的农户行为特征及其影响因素；.⑥从宏观尺度上分析了国际粮食价格变化对我国粮食安全及农地生态转型的影响。.（3）基于农户模型的农地生态转型预测研究：.⑦构建了农户决策模型，系统分析了农户年龄、非农劳动力人数、非农劳动力价格、补贴政策及其他要素价格变化对丘陵山区耕地利用生态转型行为的影响研究，推测不同情形下丘陵山区坡耕地生态转型的可能性。.（4）丘陵山区农地生态转型的多智能体耦合行为机制分析：.⑧归纳了休耕过程中涉及的利益相关者及其行为特征，构建了利益相关者之间的博弈模型，分析了休耕过程中多主体耦合行为机制。.（5）丘陵山区农地生态转型的调控研究：.⑨分析了农业劳动资源变化背景下农地流转对农业面源污染的影响；.⑩从空间上模拟不同策略情景下丘陵山区农地生态转型的管控格局。