长三角高度城镇化地区乡村聚落空间演化特征、机制及规划应对研究

As a pro-region in China, the Yangtze River Delta has been in the late stage of industrialization and urbanization. However, relevant research shows that the rural areas in this region still face increasing hollowing trends, transformation of demographic and family structure, residential dispersion and inefficient supply of public service facilities. In this regard, many studies have been carried out from the perspectives of industrial structure, land use layout, population mobility, and landscape style. But with the proposal of Rural Revitalization Strategy, value upgrading and perspective adjustment, the development goals, dynamic mechanism and planning methods in the new era. of the rural settlements in the Yangtze River Delta have yet to be supplemented and strengthened. This project focuses on 3 issues including the spatial evolution characteristics, mechanism and how spatial planning under the guidance of “Smart Shrinkage” can better cope with rural revitalization; and arranges relevant researches about feature identification and evaluation, interpretation of driving model, value-oriented reshaping and spatial planning framework construction. Correspondingly, the project would combine the spatial measurement and visualization, historical research and comparative research, case study and model research. The project aims to fill relevant academic gaps in both empirical analysis and theoretical research, and provides decision-making consultation reference for rural development in the Yangtze River Delta.

作为我国先发地区，长三角已处于工业化和城镇化后期；但相关研究表明，该区域农村仍然面临空心化趋势不断加剧，人口结构和家庭结构转变，居住分散和公共服务设施供给低效等问题。对此，已有研究多从产业结构、用地布局、人口流动、景观风貌等多角度展开；但随着乡村振兴战略的提出，价值观升级和视角调整，新时期长三角乡村聚落发展目标、动力机制、规划方法等内容还有待补充和加强。本项目聚焦长三角区域乡村聚落空间演化特征及现状格局、影响因素和作用机制以及“精明收缩”导向下空间规划如何更好地辅助乡村振兴三个问题，分别安排了特征识别及评价、作用机制解释与驱动模型提炼，价值导向重塑与空间规划框架构建三部分内容。相应采取了空间计量和空间可视化相结合、历史研究和比较研究相结合、案例研究与模式研究相结合等三组方法。研究旨在实证分析和理论研究两方面填补相关学术空白，并为长三角乡村发展提供决策咨询参考。

对于城乡人居空间变迁，既有研究多是从人口增减的单一维度入手，从而导致一个“非扩张既收缩”的二元结果。本研究以长三角地区城镇建成区面积、乡村现状建设用地面积、城乡常住人口的变化率为研究对象， 运用人居空间变迁模型，采用人口变化率和空间变化率指标组合，将长三角地区城乡人居空间变迁置于“膨胀、蔓延、稀释、萎缩、收缩、紧缩”的二维评价框架进行特征辨析，扩展既有研究思路。.结果表明，长三角地级市建成区人居空间呈现由大幅蔓延向小幅蔓延转变的趋势，变迁强度逐渐减小；横向分省城乡人居空间变迁呈现出“城镇大蔓延，乡村小萎缩”的城乡不匹配状态，人地耦合协调程度偏低；纵向分级层面“市-县-镇”的蔓延与“乡-村”的收缩萎缩形成对比。并从国际产业转移与制度变迁、空间区位、供需关系四个维度进行理论阐述。.研究提出，从人地关系平衡角度看，城镇人居空间的精明增长与乡村建设用地的精明收缩应该是未来发展的趋势，较小强度和较稳定的人居空间变迁应是空间规划的基本导向。最后提出政策建议：均衡配置人地资源；突破行政边界限制，推动区域协调发展；实行因地制宜的城镇化，充分发挥地区的比较优势。