青藏工程走廊冻土斜坡-工程水热与变形时空动态及其互馈

Slope failure in permafrost regions, caused by permafrost degradation, ground ice melting, and so on, affects the engineering construction and permafrost environment in the Qinghai-Tibetan Engineering Corridor. Most of the current studies are based on the interaction between single engineering and permafrost slope by means of multipoint monitoring, interpolation or simulation, but it is very rare to study the intensive layout of the various projects and the fragile and sensitive permafrost slopes in the corridor as a whole. In this study, permafrost slopes and the various projects (Qinghai-Tibet Railway, Highway, electric and communication towers) which are located on or around slopes in the corridor are takes as research object, integrated drone-based visible and thermal infrared remote sensing and in situ monitoring technology, combined with image mosaic, three-dimensional modeling and spatial analysis, are applied to address the three key questions: (1) The spatio-temporal hydrothermal dynamics of permafrost slope and engineering, (2) three-dimensional deformation evolution law of permafrost slope and engineering, and (3) the interaction and potential hazards of hydrothermal and deformation between permafrost slope and engineering. The research aims to explores the spatio-temporal hydrothermal dynamics of permafrost slopes under the influence of climate change and engineering disturbances; and to reveals their mutual feedback between slopes and engineering, evaluates the potential hazards of long-term stability and safety operation of engineering and slopes; and provides data and technical support for the safety range and layout of the proposed permafrost projects.

地下冰融化、多年冻土退化等冻土问题诱发的冻土斜坡失稳严重影响青藏工程走廊内的冻土工程。目前大多数研究以多点监测结合插值或模拟等手段，从单一冻土工程与脆弱而敏感的冻土斜坡相互作用的角度出发，而很少将走廊内密集布局的多种冻土工程与斜坡作为整体来考虑。本项目以冻土斜坡与赋存于其上（中）或周边的多种冻土工程（青藏铁路、公路、输电与通信塔）为研究对象，集成搭载可见光和热红外传感器的无人机遥感与原位监测技术，结合图像拼接、三维建模、空间分析等方法，重点研究：（1）冻土斜坡-工程水热时空动态变化；（2）冻土斜坡-工程三维变形演化规律；（3）冻土斜坡-工程水热与变形相互作用及潜在危害。基于以上研究，探讨气候变化和工程扰动影响下的冻土斜坡水热与变形时空动态变化规律，揭示多种冻土工程和斜坡的互馈作用，评估多种冻土工程与斜坡长期稳定及线路安全运营的潜在危害，为拟建冻土工程的安全布局提供数据和技术支撑。

本项目采用无人机遥感与原位监测技术，围绕气候变化和工程扰动条件下，青藏工程走廊冻土斜坡与赋存于其上（中）或周边的多种冻土工程（青藏铁路、公路、输电与通信塔）间水热过程与地表变形及其互馈作用，针对青藏工程走廊内的多个冻土工程的斜坡间相互影响引起的工程安全问题，分析冻土工程与斜坡水热过程与变形时空动态变化特征；揭示不同季节、不同时段、单一和多种工程分别对冻土斜坡在水热与变形上的时空差异；评估多种冻土工程与斜坡长期稳定及线路安全运营的潜在危害，为未来在青藏工程走廊拟建冻土工程的选线、安全范围和布局原则提供科学依据与技术支撑。项目集成无人机遥感和原位监测技术，从点、面到空间的角度出发，(1) 探讨了冻土斜坡与冻土工程水热与变形；(2) 分析了冻土工程安全运营对周边斜坡的影响及潜在危害；(3) 揭示了冻土工程扰动与冻土斜坡间的复杂相互耦合及互馈作用。本项目迄今共发表论文7篇，包括《Earth System Science Data》《Measurement》《Regional Environmental Change》《Energy Science & Engineering》等期刊，授权了4项发明专利。项目成员参加学术会议10余次，做学术报告10余次；多名项目骨干成员晋升；培养研究生1名；形成了一个冰冻圈低空遥感研究团队。部分研究成果入选为庆祝中华人民共和国恢复联合国合法席位50周年而举办的“地球大数据促进可持续发展目标监测和评估成果展”，而且成果被连续收录进2020和2021年的《地球大数据支撑可持续发展目标报告》，提交的数据集被评选为优秀数据集。研究成果出版的论文目前已经被引用51次。